2025-05-22-Jefferies-电缆传输潜力仍被低估_31页_1mb

Cables: Transmission Still Underestimated - Summary

Core Content

The document provides an analysis of the cable industry, focusing on three major companies: Nexans, Prysmian, and NKT. It highlights the current market dynamics, including the performance of different segments, the impact of external factors such as US tariffs and USD risks, and valuation updates for each company.

Main Points

Transmission Potential

• Nexans: Transmission growth has exceeded expectations, with positive project pricing and capacity addition. The company is expected to maintain strong performance in this segment.
• Prysmian: Transmission is showing signs of recovery, with improved pricing and the potential for large HV orders. The US tariffs issue has affected the company, but the change in policy is leading to a positive outlook.
• NKT: Transmission potential is still underestimated, with the company facing pricing pressure and margin disappointments due to project mix and ramp-up costs. However, the backlog from post-COVID projects is expected to drive profitability in 2026-2029.

Low & Medium Voltage

• Nexans: Pricing pressure in low and medium voltage is being managed, with strong execution in Connect and Grids. The company is focusing on high-value cables and consolidated markets.
• Prysmian: Pricing pressure in low voltage has abated in the US since March, and volumes remain decent. The company's performance in this segment is more positive compared to NKT.
• NKT: Pricing pressure in low voltage and power grids continues, with a bearish outlook on recovery. The company is struggling to maintain growth and margin improvements.

Market Outlook

• The overall market is showing positive growth in Qs, with bullish commentary.
• Nexans: Maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of €122, representing a 28% total share return (TSR).
• Prysmian: Maintains a "Buy" rating with a price target of €68, representing a 25% TSR.
• NKT: Maintains a "Hold" rating with a price target of DKK542, representing a 4% TSR.

Key Risks

• Nexans: Faces GSI (Greenfield Solar Infrastructure) risk, but M&A activity could drive upside from H2.
• Prysmian: Suffers from US macroeconomic and USD risks, which have kept the stock out of favor.
• NKT: Constrained growth and margin progress in the short term, with a focus on high capex and profitability challenges in Applications.

Key Information

Nexans

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: €122 (down from €132)
• TSR: 28%
• Valuation: SOTP (Sum of the Parts) at ~13x EV/EBITDA
• EBITDA: Expected to grow from €786 in 2025 to €922 in 2028
• Key Drivers: Strong execution in Connect and Grids, M&A potential

Prysmian

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: €68 (up from €57)
• TSR: 25%
• Valuation: SOTP at ~15x EV/EBITDA
• EBITDA: Expected to grow from €323 in 2025 to €475 in 2028
• Key Drivers: US tariff changes, strong execution in Transmission and Grids, potential for large HV orders

NKT

• Rating: Hold
• Price Target: DKK542 (up from DKK482)
• TSR: 4%
• Valuation: SOTP at ~9x EV/EBITDA
• EBITDA: Expected to grow from €3.59 in 2025 to €4.70 in 2028
• Key Drivers: Improved revenue trajectory in Solutions and Service & Accessories, but constrained growth in Applications

Summary of Changes

Valuation Highlights

Nexans - SOTP Valuation

• Transmission: EBITDA of €222, EV of €2,223 (10x multiple)
• Grids: EBITDA of €184, EV of €1,844 (10x multiple)
• Connect: EBITDA of €329, EV of €1,975 (6x multiple)
• Group EV: €6,198, SOTP multiple of ~7.9x
• Upside: 25%
• TSR: 28%

NKT - SOTP Framework

• Solutions: EBITDA of €294, EV of €2,935 (10x multiple)
• Applications: EBITDA of €80, EV of €562 (7x multiple)
• Services: EBITDA of €36, EV of €287 (8x multiple)
• Group EV: €3,800, SOTP multiple of ~9.2x
• Upside/Downside: 4%
• TSR: 4%

Prysmian - SOTP Framework

• Renewable Transmission: EBITDA of €649, EV of €6,491 (10x multiple)
• Power Grid: EBITDA of €500, EV of €5,001 (10x multiple)
• Electrification: EBITDA of €1,160, EV of €9,280 (8x multiple)
• Group EV: €23,165, SOTP multiple of ~8.9x
• Upside: 23%
• TSR: 25%

Conclusion

The cable industry is showing mixed but generally positive trends, with transmission and grids segments outperforming. Nexans and Prysmian are recommended as buys, with favorable price targets and strong execution in key areas. NKT remains a hold due to short-term constraints in growth and margins. The market is underestimating the potential of transmission segments, especially with the backlog from post-COVID projects. External factors such as US tariffs and USD risks continue to impact the sector, but the outlook for growth and profitability is positive.