20230615-东吴证券-宏观点评_刺激来了_5月经济最后一跌__10页_689kb

• Economic Downturn in May: The report highlights that May economic data showed continued weakness, with industrial production and investment indicators lagging. This led to a downward revision of GDP growth forecasts, with China's second-quarter GDP potentially recording zero环比 growth, pushing yearly estimates from 5.6% down to 5.2%.

• Policy Response: After June's central bank interest rate cut, the report anticipates further government measures focusing on infrastructure and real estate by mid-to-late Q2, signaling that Q2 could be the trough for overall economic performance.

• Key Economic Sectors:

  • Industrial Production: Slowed in Q2, influenced by low demand and excess inventory in some sectors, with car exports providing support but facing capacity depletion.
  • Manufacturing Investment: Shows a clear turning point as growth stalls, attributed to insufficient growth momentum and policy reliance in industries like electrical machinery.
  • Infrastructure Investment: Has seen acceleration, driven by power supply, with plans for additional financial tools potentially necessary to maintain momentum.
  • Real Estate: Sales and investment are diverging, with weak performance in development linked to poorer construction relativity and policy measures only stabilizing after earlier stimuli.

• Consumer Spending: Partially offset by active offline consumption, e.g., communications and auto sales, but overall muted due to low consumer confidence and uncertainty about policy impacts.

• Risk Factors: External risks include supply chain disruptions from emerging economies and global economic conditions affecting exports; domestic risks involve pandemic resurgence.

This report outlines China's shallow economic recovery, with policy interventions deemed necessary to mitigate downturn and stabilize key areas.