期刊-NBER美国国民经济研究局-Spring1989_1_36页_791kb

NBER Reporter Summary: Business Cycles

Core Content

The National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) has been conducting research on business cycles for nearly 70 years. Business cycles are defined as recurrent sequences of economic ups and downs, characterized by expansion, recession, contraction, and revival. These cycles are important because they affect employment, production, real income, and real sales.

The NBER's work on business cycles began shortly after its founding in 1920, with the compilation of "business annals" that tracked economic conditions in the United States and several other countries. These efforts led to the development of monthly, quarterly, and annual reference chronologies of business cycles, which were later used by the U.S. Department of Commerce in its Business Conditions Digest.

In 1927, Wesley C. Mitchell published a volume that established a workable definition of business cycles. This definition was later refined by Arthur F. Burns and Mitchell in 1946 and remains in use today. It emphasizes that business cycles are not periodic, and their duration, amplitude, and scope vary.

The NBER's Business Cycle Dating Committee, established in 1980, is responsible for identifying official turning points in the U.S. business cycle, such as peaks and troughs.

Main Research Topics

Indexes of Coincident and Leading Economic Indicators

James H. Stock and Mark W. Watson developed new experimental indexes of coincident and leading economic indicators. These indexes are weighted averages of key economic time series and are used to forecast economic activity.

• Coincident Index (CEI): Measures the current state of the economy.
• Leading Index (LEI): Provides advance information about future economic trends.
• Recession Index (RI): Estimates the probability of a recession in six months.

The traditional NBER/DOC approach uses weighted averages of contemporaneous growth rates, while the new approach uses a "dynamic factor model." The results of both methods are very similar, with the main difference being the use of employee-hours instead of the number of employees in the new model.

Asset-Price Expectations

Kenneth A. Froot's research explores how investors form expectations about asset prices and how these expectations relate to actual price movements. His findings suggest that:

• Short-term expectations are closely aligned with recent price trends, while long-term expectations tend to reverse these trends.
• Investors are more likely to sell when prices are low based on short-term expectations.
• Expectations conform closely with simple theories of relative asset pricing, such as the expectations hypothesis in the bond market and uncovered interest parity in the foreign exchange market.

However, actual price realizations often provide a biased approximation of expectations. This suggests that ex post data may not be a reliable indicator of ex ante expectations, and that systematic errors in price responses can be exploited for investment gains.

The Seasonal Cycle and the Business Cycle

Jeffrey A. Miron's research examines the relationship between the seasonal cycle and the business cycle. The seasonal cycle refers to regular, predictable patterns in economic activity that occur at specific times of the year, such as holidays or weather-related events. These seasonal patterns can be distinguished from the broader, irregular business cycles, which are the focus of NBER research.

Key Information

• The NBER has been a leader in defining and studying business cycles since its founding in 1920.
• The current definition of business cycles, established by Mitchell and later refined by Burns, emphasizes that they are not periodic and vary in duration and amplitude.
• The NBER's chronology of U.S. business cycles dates back to 1854 for monthly and quarterly data, and to 1790 for annual data.
• The Business Cycle Dating Committee identifies official turning points in the U.S. business cycle.
• The NBER has developed experimental indexes that improve the accuracy of economic forecasts.
• Investors' expectations of asset prices can be systematically different from actual price movements.
• The NBER continues to publish research on business cycles, with summaries available in publications such as A Decade of NBER Books and NBER Publications.

Structure of the Report

• Program Report: Overview of NBER's research on business cycles.
• Research Summaries: Includes detailed studies on economic indicators, asset-price expectations, and seasonal cycles.
• Economic Outlook Survey: Quarterly assessments of economic conditions.
• NBER Profiles: Biographical information on NBER members.
• Conferences and Calendar: Information on upcoming and past NBER-related events.
• Bureau News and Books: Updates on NBER activities and publications.
• Working Papers: Recent research findings available for review.

References

• Fabricant, S. (1984). Toward a Firmer Basis of Economic Policy: The Founding of the National Bureau of Economic Research.
• Gordon, R. J. (1986). The American Business Cycle: Continuity and Change.
• Moore, G. H. (1983). Business Cycles, Inflation, and Forecasting.
• Froot, K. A. (1987, 1988). Various working papers and survey data analyses on asset-price expectations.