20180828-招银国际-禹洲地产-01628.HK-Expecting_acceleration_in_2H_6页_707kb

报告摘要

Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK) Summary

Core Content

Yuzhou Properties (1628 HK) is a Chinese property developer with a significant land bank and a focus on property development, investment, and management. The report provides an analysis of its financial performance, sales progress, land acquisition, and investment outlook for 2018 and beyond.

Key Financial Highlights (1H18)

Revenue advanced by 27.5% to Rmb9.24bn, with property sales contributing Rmb8.97bn.
Net profit surged by 62.8% to Rmb1.28bn, driven by a reduced effective tax rate (from 58.4% to 47.7%) and profit from associates and JVs (up to Rmb397mn).
Core profit grew by 25.9% to Rmb1.16bn, excluding non-cash items like revaluation gains.
Gross margin declined slightly to 31.5%.
YRD and West Strait contributed 48.9% and 23.4% of contracted sales respectively.
Contracted sales in 7M18 reached Rmb24.5bn, completing 40% of the 2018 sales target of Rmb60bn.

Land Bank and Acquisition

Total land bank as of June 2018 was 17.25mn sq.m, with 41.8% in the Yangtze River Delta (YRD), 24.1% in the Bohai Rim, and 21.6% in the West Strait.
Acquisition of 7 projects from Coastal Greenland (1124 HK, NR) completed in August 2018, adding attributable GFA of 3.11mn sq.m and attributable saleable resources of over Rmb40bn.
The acquisition is expected to boost sales in the second half of 2018.

Financial Outlook and Target Price

Earnings forecast for 2018 was revised up by 10.7% to Rmb3.95bn.
Core profit forecast for 2018 was adjusted to Rmb3.88bn.
NAV forecast for end-2018 was reduced to HK$9.33, reflecting Rmb depreciation and tightened property market.
Target Price (TP) was revised to HK$5.60, representing a 40% discount to NAV.
Recommendation remains BUY, with a potential return of +35.2% from the current price of HK$4.14.

Financial Statements Overview

Revenue is expected to grow steadily, from Rmb13,672mn in FY16A to Rmb47,591mn in FY20E.
Net profit is projected to increase from Rmb1,775mn in FY16A to Rmb6,261mn in FY20E.
EPS is forecasted to rise from 0.48 in FY16A to 1.50 in FY20E.
Core profit is expected to increase from Rmb3,567mn in FY17A to Rmb6,261mn in FY20E.
Net gearing ratio rose from 57.7% in Dec 2017 to 63.0% in Jun 2018.
Cost of debt increased from 6.02% to 6.52% in 1H18.

Key Ratios

Gross margin decreased slightly to 31.5% in 1H18.
Pre-tax margin and net margin also showed a decline in 1H18.
Effective tax rate decreased to 47.7% in 1H18.
ROE improved from 16.6% in FY16A to 25.8% in FY20E.
ROA increased from 3.0% in FY16A to 4.6% in FY20E.
Net debt / total equity ratio rose to 62.1% in FY18E.

Share Performance

Shareholding structure shows Lam Lung On holds 62.41% of shares, with free float at 37.59%.
Share price performance over the past 12 months showed a decline of -22.0% in absolute terms and -11.9% relative to the market.
12-month price performance is depicted in a chart (not included in text).

Risk and Disclaimer

The report is for informational purposes only and not investment advice.
There are risks involved in trading securities, and actual events may differ from projections.
CMB International Securities Limited (CMBIS) is a wholly owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.
The report is not suitable for all investors and should be independently evaluated.

Analyst Certification

The research analyst certifies that the views expressed reflect personal opinions and are not influenced by compensation.
The analyst confirms no trading activity in the covered stocks within 30 days of the report’s issue and no direct involvement in any of the companies in the report.

CMBIS Ratings

BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over the next 12 months.
HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10%.
SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10%.
NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIS.

Contact Information

Huang Chengyu: Tel: (852) 37618773, Email: huangchengyu@cmbi.com.hk
Samson Man, CFA: Tel: (852) 39000853, Email: samsonman@cmbi.com.hk

Additional Notes

The report includes figures and tables illustrating financial performance, sales breakdown, land bank distribution, and key ratios.
Auditor: Ernst & Young.
Website: www.xmyuzhou.com.cn.

展开完整摘要