2023-11-29-CBRE-2023年3季度英国物流市场报告_16页_2mb

UK Logistics Q3 2023 Summary

Core Content

This report provides an overview of the UK logistics market in Q3 2023, focusing on take-up, availability, investment activity, and regional performance. It highlights the impact of economic uncertainty, interest rates, and supply-demand dynamics on the sector.

Main Highlights

• Take-up:

  • Total take-up for the first nine months of 2023 was 13.3m sq ft, a 56% decrease compared to the same period in 2022.
  • Q3 take-up was stable QoQ at 3.3m sq ft.
  • The East Midlands was the most active region, accounting for almost half of the total UK take-up in Q3 and 32.5% on a 12-month rolling basis.

• Available Space:

  • Available space at the end of Q3 reached 36.3m sq ft, up from Q2.
  • Speculative space continued to decline, but new completed space and secondhand available space increased.
  • The UK vacancy rate rose to 4.57%, an increase of 120 bps QoQ, driven by the return of secondhand space and new speculative developments.

• Deal Sizes:

  • XXL units (above 500,000 sq ft) accounted for only 5% of all deals.
  • Over two-thirds of deals were for units between 100,000 and 200,000 sq ft.
  • The average deal size for the year to date (YTD) was 229,692 sq ft, significantly lower than the 2020 average.

• Sector Activity:

  • 3PLs (third-party logistics) were the most active sector, accounting for 38.1% of total take-up on a 12-month basis.
  • Retailers and manufacturers followed with 16.2% and 14%, respectively.
  • 3PLs showed a preference for smaller units, while retailers focused on larger units for centralized operations.

• Regional Performance:

  • South East:
    • Total take-up in Q3 was 0.24m sq ft, with YTD at 2.5m sq ft.
    • Prime rent increased to £27.50 psf, and the prime yield remained at 5.25%.
    • Availability increased to 6.3m sq ft, with 39.8% being new speculative stock.
  • South West:
    • Take-up was 0.32m sq ft in Q3, down 57% QoQ.
    • Vacancy rate rose to 8.2%, the second highest in the UK.
    • Prime rent remained stable at £8.75 psf, with a prime yield of 5.25%.
  • Yorkshire & North East:
    • Take-up in Q3 was 0.32m sq ft, with YTD at 1.7m sq ft.
    • 50% of availability was speculative, and the vacancy rate was 3.8%, the lowest in the UK.
    • Prime rent was stable at £8.25 psf, with a prime yield of 5.25%.
  • North West:
    • Q3 take-up was 0.23m sq ft, with YTD at 0.98m sq ft.
    • Vacancy rate increased to 4.2%, and prime rent rose to £9.50 psf.
  • Scotland:
    • No big box activity occurred in Q3, with 0 take-up so far in 2023.
    • Availability increased to 1.3m sq ft, the highest since 2017.
    • Vacancy rate rose to 8.2%, the highest in the UK.
    • Prime rent remained at £8.50 psf, with a prime yield of 6.00%.

Investment Activity

• Investment Volumes:

  • Q3 2023 investment volumes (transactions over £5m) totaled £1.6bn, a 25% decrease QoQ.
  • YTD investment reached £4.7bn, with portfolio sales making up 40% of the total.
  • Rolling 12-month investment volumes totaled £5.7bn.

• Regional Investment:

  • The South East led Q3 investment, contributing 47% of the total (excluding portfolios).
  • Yorkshire & North East and East Midlands contributed 9.7% and 9%, respectively.
  • The South East also had the largest share of 12-month rolling investment at 37%.

• Purchaser Types:

  • Private Equity dominated logistics investment, accounting for 51.5% of the total.
  • Property Companies and UK Institutions followed with 25.7% and 19.6%, respectively.

Key Deals

• Coventry Logistics Park:
  • £140.5m, 784,989 sq ft, purchased by DTZ Investors.
• Tera40, Greenford:
  • £146.3m, 340,987 sq ft, purchased by Valor Real Estate.
• Javelin Portfolio:
  • £100.9m, 873,893 sq ft, purchased by P3.

Key Contacts

• Advisory & Transaction Services:

  • Paul Farrow, Executive Director, Head of UK I&L
  • Sam Smith, Senior Director, South East I&L A&T
  • Will Abbott, Senior Director, South East I&L A&T
  • Nick Tutton, Senior Director, South Central I&L A&T
  • Phil Cranstone, Director, South West I&L A&T
  • Peter Monks, Senior Director, Midlands I&L A&T
  • Mike Baugh, Executive Director, Yorkshire I&L A&T
  • Dave Cato, Director, North East I&L A&T
  • Paul Cook, Senior Director, North West I&L A&T
  • Craig Semple, Director, Scotland I&L A&T

• Occupier Services:

  • Jonathan Priestley, Executive Director, Head of UK I&L
  • Simon Milner, Executive Director, UK I&L Occupier Services

• Logistics Strategy:

  • Jonathan Compton, Senior Director, UK I&L Intelligence

• Lease Consultancy:

  • Liam Small, Director, UK I&L Lease Consultancy

• Development Funding:

  • Adam McMillan, Senior Director, UK I&L Development Consultancy

• Supply Chain Advisory:

  • Bruce Robertson, Executive Director, Head of Supply Chain and Consumer Advisory, Europe

• Capital Markets:

  • Simon Blake, Chairman of European I&L
  • Jack Farmer, Executive Director, Head of UK I&L Capital Markets
  • Oliver Forster, Senior Director, Midlands I&L Investment
  • Alex Whiting, Senior Director, Yorkshire & North East I&L Investment
  • Tom Morris, Executive Director, South West I&L Investment
  • Martyn Brown, Director, Scotland I&L Investment
  • Rob Woods, Senior Director, North West I&L Investment

• Valuation Services:

  • Ben Thomas, Senior Director, UK I&L Valuations

• Building Consultancy:

  • Duncan Robertson, Senior Director, Head of UK I&L Building Consultancy

• Business Development:

  • Mike Young, Senior Director, Head of UK I&L Business Development

Authors

• Jennet Siebrits: Executive Director, Head of UK Research – jen.siebrits@cbre.com
• Miranda Botcherby: Director, Head of UK I&L and Retail Research – miranda.botcherby@cbre.com
• Nikhita Patel: Senior Analyst, UK I&L Capital Markets – nikhita.patel@cbre.com

For data queries, contact Miranda Botcherby.