20250920-中泰期货-锰硅周报_关注锰矿到港压力_中长期逢高空思路不变_43页_1mb

MnSi Weekly Report Summary:

• Key Focus: The report highlights concerns over Mn ore arrivals at ports and maintains a medium-term bearish outlook for MnSi.

• Cost-Profit Analysis: This week, Mn ore prices were strong, but chemical coke prices dropped, leading to mostly negative or marginal profits across regions. Estimated costs: Inner Mongolia ~5840 RMB/t (loss ~100 RMB/t), Ningxia ~5840 RMB/t (loss ~140 RMB/t), Guangxi ~6530 RMB/t (loss ~780 RMB/t). Actual costs are lower due to factors like Mn ore blending and tail gas power generation.

• Mn Ore Supply: Tianjin Port inventory decreased by 19,140 tons, slightly below expectations, with expected arrivals of 76,440 tons next week. Demand driven by SMM plant restocking but could lead to inventory buildup.

• Supply-Demand Balance: National MnSi production increased sharply in August, with all regions reporting higher output. Supply remains robust, while demand is steady, contributing to an expected overcapacity in the medium term.

• Market Events: September steel purchase data shows mixed results, such as HeSteel's MnSi pricing at 6000 RMB/t and increased purchase volumes. Export-import data indicates stable but declining profitability, with high import costs potentially pressuring prices.

• Market View: Short-term price volatility occurred due to coking coal sentiment, but medium-term outlook remains bearish due to supply excess, rising production costs (e.g., electricity}), and Mn ore accumulation. Recommendations include逢高偏空 strategy, with risks from macroeconomic changes.

• Key Metrics to Monitor: Mn ore arrival trends, cost-profit dynamics, and national supply levels.

• Trading Strategy: Medium-term逢高偏空, supported by economic data and market sentiment.