20240713-开源证券-宏观经济点评_外需弱修复_出口同比温和回升_9页_1mb

报告摘要

Export Growth Rebounds Moderately: China's June 2024 export growth reached +86% year-on-year, up from +76% in May, but external demand is slowing due to high global interest rates, with leading indicators like global PMI showing slight declines. Factors include quantity contributions and low 2023 base effects, but sustainable improvements may be limited by deteriorating demand in developed regions.
Import Decline Reflects Weak Domestic Demand: June imports fell to -23% year-on-year, a significant drop from +18% in May, indicating subdued domestic consumption. Despite this, rising overseas commodity prices could support import rebounds in the coming months.
Global Economic Context: High US interest rates constrain external needs, likely keeping export growth weak despite a steady upward trend. The report projects full-year 2024 export growth around 5% at best, with potential volatility in upcoming months.

Export growth is expected to moderate, potentially fluctuating between 4% and 8% in the remainder of 2024.
Policies like the EU-China EV tariffs could impact sectors, but immediate export effects appear modest.

External demand may deteriorate faster than anticipated.
Policy changes could alter export dynamics.
Uncertainties include vulnerabilities in international trade regulations, such as US-Mexico steel and aluminum import bans affecting minor export sectors.

For detailed historical data and analysis, refer back to the full report.

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