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National Energy Roadmaps for Islands Summary

Core Content

National Energy Roadmaps for Islands are strategic documents developed by the International Renewable Energy Agency (IRENA) in collaboration with governments and key stakeholders. These roadmaps aim to guide island states toward a renewable energy future by providing a comprehensive analysis of energy use, generation capacity, and policy recommendations. The goal is to transition from fossil fuel-based systems to least-cost, renewable-dominated energy systems while addressing technical, economic, and operational challenges.

Main Points

1. Purpose and Structure of Roadmaps

• Roadmaps are the outcome of collaboration between IRENA, governments, and local stakeholders.
• They provide a long-term capacity expansion model to identify the least-cost power system.
• Additional dispatching analysis helps determine the optimal use of renewable resources.
• The analysis covers all energy sectors, including heating, cooling, and transportation.

2. Key Technologies and Strategies

• Variable Renewable Energy (VRE) technologies such as photovoltaics (PV) and wind are often the primary options for high renewable penetration.
• Battery storage is identified as critical for system reliability and VRE integration.
• Grid integration studies are recommended to address operational issues and ensure smooth transition to renewable systems.

3. Policy Recommendations

• Policy recommendations are derived from quantitative analysis and aim to support the implementation of the roadmap.
• These include setting renewable energy targets, designing market mechanisms, and creating incentives for both conventional and renewable energy.
• They also address the need for coordinated planning between generation and transmission expansion.

4. Operational Constraints and Integration

• For smaller systems, capacity expansion and dispatching can be combined.
• For larger systems, a detailed timeline of generation investments is provided, with dispatching models used to assess impacts of each addition.
• Grid integration studies may be necessary to address operational challenges and support future electricity systems.

Key Island Case Studies

1. Cyprus Roadmap

• A detailed techno-economic analysis was conducted from 2012 to 2040.
• Six scenarios were developed to evaluate the impact of energy decisions, including undersea cable interconnection and natural gas generation.
• Renewables are expected to account for at least 26% and up to 40% of the generation mix by 2030.
• The roadmap informed the revision of the National Renewable Energy Action Plan and electricity market design.
• Complementary studies by the European Commission’s JRC were used to support the transition to a renewable-based power system.

2. Barbados Roadmap

• The analysis focused on optimizing generation capacity from 2014 to 2030.
• Four scenarios were explored, including the Reference Scenario (76% renewables), the Energy Efficiency (EE) scenario (80% renewables), and the Low Oil Price scenario.
• The roadmap included an assessment of electric vehicle (EV) deployment and its impact on power system dispatching.
• Battery storage was identified as a key enabler for system reliability and renewable integration.
• Solar water heating, seawater air conditioning, and solar air conditioning were also evaluated for the tourism sector.

3. Kiribati Roadmap

• Developed by the Government of Kiribati, IRENA, SPC, and PPA, this roadmap covers 2015–2025.
• A combined capacity expansion and dispatching approach was used to identify a least-cost hybrid system for Kiritimati.
• For South Tarawa, a model was developed to assess the least-cost system for 2025, including the impact of PV and diesel generators.
• The analysis recommended a 35% renewable share by 2025, supported by 4 MW of PV and battery storage.
• A modular deployment strategy was proposed to align with available funding and support a technical evolution from the current system.

4. Dominican Republic Roadmap

• IRENA conducted a REmap study to assess the potential of renewable technologies in the country.
• The analysis showed that implementing additional renewable options could increase the 2030 renewables share to 27% in the total final energy mix.
• The power sector could achieve a 44% renewable share through targeted PV and wind expansion.
• Technical challenges identified included generation adequacy, fossil fuel utilization, and transmission network adequacy.
• Policy actions recommended include setting clear targets, designing incentives, and coordinating generation and transmission planning.

Conclusion

National Energy Roadmaps for Islands are essential tools for transitioning to a renewable energy future. They incorporate detailed techno-economic and dispatching analyses, policy recommendations, and sector-specific assessments. The successful implementation of these roadmaps requires strong stakeholder engagement, availability of data, and the integration of complementary studies such as grid integration and market design. The case studies from Cyprus, Barbados, Kiribati, and the Dominican Republic demonstrate the practical application and impact of these roadmaps in achieving sustainable and cost-effective energy systems.