集成能源与汽车发展路线图2030（英文版）-2mb

Summary of the Study: Integrated Fuels and Vehicles Roadmap to 2030+

Core Content

This study, commissioned by a coalition of automotive companies and fuel suppliers, evaluates the potential for reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions in the EU road transport sector up to 2030 and beyond. It focuses on the integration of fuels and vehicle technologies, analyzing the impact of current and future regulatory frameworks, cost structures, and customer acceptance on the feasibility and effectiveness of decarbonization strategies.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Background and Motivation

• The EU faces a significant challenge in reducing transport-related GHG emissions, which are currently the only sector in the EU where emissions have increased.
• The 2030 Climate and Energy Policy Framework sets binding GHG reduction targets but lacks specific sectoral goals for road transport.
• The study aims to provide an integrated roadmap to achieve decarbonization by 2030 and beyond, considering technical feasibility, infrastructure needs, and cost-effectiveness.

2. Modelling Approach and Assumptions

• The reference case is based on current regulation and includes assumptions about fuel prices, vehicle technologies, and customer behavior.
• Scenarios are developed for 2021–2030, considering macroeconomic trends, fuel and energy developments, and powertrain technologies.
• A Total Cost of Ownership (TCO) model is used to assess the competitiveness of different powertrains and fuels.

3. GHG Emissions Reduction Under Current Policy (Reference Case)

• Maintaining the current vehicle efficiency and fuel regulations until 2030 is expected to reduce tank-to-wheel (TTW) GHG emissions by 29% compared to 2005 levels, reaching 647 Mton CO₂e.
• This reduction will bring TTW emissions close to the -30% reference level versus 2005.
• Well-to-wheel (WTW) emissions are projected to decrease by 23% in TTW and 22% in well-to-tank (WTT) emissions, totaling 862 Mton CO₂e in 2030.
• Internal Combustion Engines (ICEs), particularly optimized diesel and gasoline engines, will remain the most impactful technologies for GHG reduction until 2030.
• Alternative powertrains like mild hybrids (MH) and full hybrids (FH) are considered as part of the OEMs’ compliance strategy, but they lack TCO competitiveness compared to ICEs.
• Biofuels and new truck concepts offer additional cost-effective GHG abatement opportunities for commercial vehicles.

4. Additional Potential for GHG Abatement (2030 and Beyond)

• Biofuels, mild hybrids, and full hybrids are highlighted as cost-efficient technologies for reducing GHG emissions in both passenger cars and commercial vehicles.
• Advanced biofuels such as R33 (7% FAME + 26% HVO) and E20 (20% ethanol) offer significant abatement potential, especially for diesel and gasoline.
• New truck concepts and LNG (Liquefied Natural Gas) can help offset increased transport volumes, leading to negative GHG abatement costs.
• Beyond 2030, the study recommends the use of zero-emission technologies such as BEVs, PHEVs, and FCVs, fueled by low-carbon renewable energy and renewable hydrogen.

5. Policy Recommendations

• A market-based mechanism (MBM) should be introduced to provide funding for demand-side measures and promote GHG abatement.
• Integrated policy approaches are needed to support the deployment of cost-efficient technologies, including:
  • Biofuels: Promoting the use of advanced biofuels through tax incentives and fuel taxation bonuses based on biofuel content.
  • Hybrids: Improving cost competitiveness and increasing consumer awareness through taxation policies and incentives.
  • Commercial Vehicles: Enhancing efficiency and supporting hybridization and drop-in biofuels.
• Regulatory changes should be made to align with the TCO of efficient technologies, including removing vehicle length and weight limitations.
• Innovation Fund should support low-carbon technology development, particularly for advanced biofuels.
• Renewable fuel compatibility should be recognized in vehicle regulations to enable zero-tailpipe emissions for fuels with a renewable share above 10% (ethanol) or 7% (FAME).

6. Key Outcomes

1. GHG Emissions Reduction:

   • The reference case predicts a 29% reduction in TTW emissions from road transport by 2030 compared to 2005.
   • WTW emissions will be reduced by ~23% in TTW and ~22% in WTT, totaling 862 Mton CO₂e in 2030.

2. GHG Abatement Costs:

   • GHG abatement in the road transport sector will cost ~150–200 EUR/ton CO₂e after considering fuel savings.
   • Cumulative incremental powertrain costs from 2010 to 2030 are estimated at EUR 380–390 bn.

3. Cost-Effective Technologies:

   • E10, E20, and R33 are recommended for cost-effective GHG reduction.
   • MH, FH, and PHEVs are also key for reducing emissions, especially when supported by policy.
   • New HDT concepts with increased vehicle weight and improved aerodynamics offer negative GHG abatement costs.

4. Policy Integration:

   • A comprehensive and technology-neutral policy framework is necessary to integrate fuel and vehicle sectors.
   • MBM should be used to recycle revenues from fuel allowances to fund low-carbon technologies.
   • TCO-driven policies are essential for commercial vehicles, with LCVs being the only segment where fuel-saving measures are currently supported.

7. Conclusion

The study concludes that the EU road transport sector can achieve significant GHG reductions by 2030 through a combination of optimized ICEs, biofuels, and hybrid powertrains, supported by an integrated regulatory framework and market-based mechanisms. To ensure long-term sustainability and cost-effectiveness, policy coherence and investment security are crucial, especially for biofuel suppliers, OEMs, and consumers. Beyond 2030, the focus should shift to zero-emission technologies and renewable energy sources to meet the long-term 2050 GHG reduction goals.