2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Portugal_Fifth_Review_Under_the_Extended_Arrangement_and_Request_for_Waivers_of_Applicability_and_Nonobservance_of_End_119页_2mb

Summary of Portugal's Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement

Core Content

This document outlines the Fifth Review Under the Extended Arrangement for Portugal, including the request for waivers of applicability and nonobservance of end-September performance criteria. It covers the staff report, press release, and statement by the Executive Director, providing an overview of the country's economic situation, policy discussions, and the implications of the program's adjustments.

Main Views and Key Information

Economic Developments

• Portugal has made progress in reducing macroeconomic imbalances.
• The recession is expected to extend into 2013, with output contraction of around 1 percent in 2013 and 3 percent in 2012.
• The current account deficit is projected to fall below 2 percent of GDP in 2013, driven by stronger net exports and import compression.
• Public debt is expected to peak at 124 percent of GDP in 2014, up from previous estimates due to slower fiscal adjustment and a more protracted recession.

Fiscal Performance

• All end-June performance criteria (PCs) were met, but the end-September PC on the government deficit was missed.
• A fiscal gap of 1.5 percent of GDP has emerged, with most of it expected to carry over to 2013.
• The government deficit for 2012 and 2013 is not expected to be met, prompting a recalibration of fiscal targets.

Political and Social Context

• Social and political resistance to further austerity measures has increased.
• The Constitutional Court ruled that cuts to 13th and 14th month salaries and public pension beneficiaries were disproportionate and inconsistent with equality of treatment, affecting the 2013 fiscal plan.

Policy Discussions

• The staff supports the authorities' request for completion of the fifth review, including the waivers.
• The purchase amount is equivalent to SDR 1.259 billion.
• The program aims to balance fiscal adjustment with employment and output stability, allowing for frontloading of fiscal measures to stabilize debt.

Key Areas of Focus

A. Outlook and Risks: A More Protracted Recession

• The recession is expected to last longer, with output contraction continuing into 2013.
• Current account improvement is expected to be modest (1–2 percent of GDP) in 2013 due to uncertain external demand and limited competitiveness gains.
• Fiscal drag is a significant risk to growth, with staff using a higher fiscal multiplier of 0.8 for 2013, up from 0.5.
• The recovery in 2014 is expected to be gradual, supported by investment outlays from more export-oriented firms.

B. Fiscal Policy: Balancing Growth and Debt Sustainability

• The fiscal path is being recalibrated to allow for fiscal adjustment to be completed in 2013 and 2014.
• The government is focusing on maintaining debt sustainability through frontloading and adjusting the timing of fiscal measures.
• Spending discipline has been maintained, but revenue shortfalls remain a major challenge.

C. Safeguarding Financial Stability

• Bank liquidity has improved, with reliance on Eurosystem support reduced to €56 billion by end-August.
• Private sector deleveraging is ongoing, with credit contraction and rising bankruptcies, especially among SMEs.
• Bank profitability continues to weaken, with NPLs rising to 9 percent of GDP by end-June 2012.
• Government bond yields have declined significantly, with the 10-year yield remaining at the lower end of its trading range despite fiscal underperformance.

D. Boosting Competitiveness and Growth

• Product market reforms have advanced, with a focus on increasing competition and reducing profit margins in regulated industries.
• Labor market reforms are being completed, including changes to collective agreements and severance pay reductions, aimed at improving employment protection legislation and labor market flexibility.
• The OECD's 2012 Economic Survey highlights key remaining concerns, which are being addressed through these reforms.

Financing

• The financing under the Extended Arrangement is expected to be completed in 2014, with the new baseline indicating a higher peak debt-to-GDP ratio.
• The program's success will depend on improvements in the euro area economic environment and implementation of structural reforms.

Risks and Challenges

• Significant risks to the program's objectives exist, including adverse shocks and uncertainty in the external environment.
• Fiscal risks remain due to revenue shortfalls and contractual claims from public-private partnerships.
• Debt sustainability is still under pressure, with contingent liabilities posing a high risk factor.

Program Adjustments

• The fiscal adjustment is being spread over two years (2013 and 2014).
• The authorities and staff have agreed on more conservative macroeconomic assumptions and tax elasticities to mitigate risks.
• The program's resilience is being strengthened through early submission of permanent fiscal measures to Parliament.

Supporting Documents

• Letter of Intent
• Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies
• Technical Memorandum of Understanding
• Letter of Intent to the European Commission and the European Central Bank
• Memorandum of Understanding on Specific Economic Policy Conditionality

Key Tables and Figures

• Tables include economic indicators, government accounts, debt sustainability frameworks, and financing requirements.
• Figures cover high-frequency indicators, labor market trends, competitiveness indicators, balance of payments, and financial indicators.
• Boxes highlight the SME sector and comprehensive labor market reform.