20240804-国金证券-电子行业周报_云厂商Q2资本开支乐观_英伟达GB200延后不改向好趋势_9页_1mb

Thesis Viewpoints: Optimism for Q2 Capex in Cloud Vendors and AI Driven Consumption Electronic Demand. Despite the delay of NVIDIA's Blackwell-based AI flagship GB200 chips due to design flaws and COWOS-L yield issues, cloud vendors are expected to maintain strong capital expenditure in 2024 Q2, driven by sustained AI demand. Microsoft's Q2 2024 expenditure reached $19 billion (+776 YoY), Apple and a group followed suit. The annualized cloud AI compute growth is "proximate." While the AI cloud calculation board may face short-term pressure, the favorable trend is expected to continue with B-series chip issues resolved.

Moreover, the new Apple Intelligence base model (only English capable, for iPhone 15 Pro+, M-series iPad/Mac) introduces AI chips and hardware innovation, triggering a new upgrade cycle and demand recovery. Consumption electronics, as a new AI terminal, is entering the third quarter buying season.

Key growth areas include:

1. Industrial, Auto, Leisure: Global PC shipments increased by 34% YoY to 62.8 million units; Smartphones delivered 12% growth (2.88B unit). Apple's AI smartphone upgrades driving demand.
2. PCB: PCB industry moving towards steady recovery. Cost-pressure due to silver price and domestic power supply affects passive parts firms like Murata, TDK.
3. IC Design: Infrastructure switching to DDR5/HBM poised to benefit China's niche memory suppliers. Taiwan's TSMC/UMC saw revenue decline, but China's Semiconductor Industry Association forecasts strong DD5/HBM demand.

Key drivers: AI promotion, consumption electronics innovation recovery, and domestic supply security. Key picks are: Li xi jin JING jie, Qing shui guang guo, Peng ding zheng fa, ZHU Hui, Lan si Keji, He Bing jie, iChart Computing, Tian fu Mico, Sichuan Tianfa, Siemens IRIS TH RESEARCH.

Week Points

1. Auto, Industrial, Consumption End Devices: Demand for consumption electronics appears solid. AI terminals at the network edge are promising. Point to:

   • Strong PC (34% YoY) and Smartphone (12% YoY) shipments.
   • Apple Intelligence demand-layering for iPhone 15 Pro/M-series/Mac. AI glasses potential (estimated Ray-Ban Meta half-year sales above 500k).
   • Brands/Suppliers/EXR (Apple, Xiaomi, Tiong, Lenovo; Li xi jin/Jun Da, etc) for Q3 smartphone upgrades, XR headsets.

2. Automotive Focus on intelligent driving + EV. Progress noted in NEVs (Mazda, hundreds ofk), Tesla Robotaxi, parts suppliers (tech/connectors; glass/pattern optics; screen tech). AI supplier outlook.

3. Photolithography Lens Market Looks fragile due to intense competition, especially with US restrictions. Changes likely include statistical quality control, yield management. Regional performance differences may appear.

4. PCB The board manufacturing sector showed strong YoY growth at the start of the year, but experienced a significant monthly decline. Earlier may relate to Taiwan power capacity limitations. Firm shortages expected easing by end-July.

5. Passive Components See rising prices. Analysis from Caijing Daily notes passive component firms may raise quotes up to 20%. Price-controlling successfully impacting overseas product lines. Supply chain pressure built due to server, smartphone, PC demand, which this year was exported.

6. IC Design DRAM suppliers like Samsung, Hynix are moving towards DDR5/HBM. China’s niche (low-end) memory suppliers ((DDR2-3...)) may see demand blunted but could capitalize on the push to DDR5/HBM.

Picks

• Consumption Electronics: Companies enabling AI or connecting to device upgrades. Focus on new networks, AI models, phone/PAD/MAC upgrades.
• Industrial Components: May continue to focus on core capacity building, possibly leveraging new client opportunities.
• PCB: Focus on yield and spatial computing applications.
• Operations/R&D: Refine technical processes to align with client needs and industry evolution.

Market Review (POSSIBLY MISFORMATTED CHART)

Stock reversion sharp buyer waves in June. Electronics perftrend up by 0.48%. Active talks in key semiconductor areas were widespread. Key smaller segments saw high reversion, while broader platforms experienced decline. Selected stocks (Hengnan Technology, Yinxinyx, etc) saw high growth. Recession risk notable for smaller stock.

Risk Warning

Technology progress risks, US/Japan/Holland export restrictions could bear on new component access, specific equipment transition risks. While downstream products like AI phones/servers showed price/volume growth initially (2006 mass market model, IDG estimate 84 billion units), network upgrades may require additional infrastructure.
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Separate Exploration

PCB Chart Analysis (Likely Pure Performance Data)

Various PCB-related component firms (electronic copper foil, glass fiber cloth, P2C, PCB) saw fluctuations over the discussed period. Key data points mention YoY growth and环比 contraction, possibly representing co-chart data points related to client responses and supply adjustments. Market region shifts noted for speeds like DDR6.

Note: The above blocks represent summary points extracted from a complex, multi-block original report. 6