2025-06-10-Jefferies-银行2025年第三季度展望-信贷情景差异显著_32页_1mb

报告摘要

Equity Research: Canada Banks Outlook (Jefferies — June 10, 2025)

Overview

Despite mixed macroeconomic uncertainties, Canadian banks' 3Q25 outlook shows relatively cautious positivity. Key themes include resilient margins, moderate loan growth, rising credit provisions, and strategic capital allocation. Economic headwinds from U.S. tariffs slow consumer and business sentiment, challenging loan growth and credit fundamentals.

Credit Fundamentals

Provisions & Reserves: Q2 credit losses climbed �≈$6.4B (21% sequentially, 45% YoY), driven by step-up in performing loan provisions (now ~$2B) while impaired losses moderated. Total PCL ratios rose to 0.46% (above pre-April 2024 levels).
Defaults & RY Exception: Royal Bank (RY) reported modestly lower Stage 3 defaults, while others face elevated risks due to ongoing trade tensions and recessiionary fears, potentially delaying peak PCLs until 2026.

Loan Growth & Margin Dynamics

Lending Trends: Quarterly growth turned flat in Q2 (C$ million CAGR ≈1.2%). US trade uncertainty weighs on new lending, but forecasts for Q3 aim for YoY growth (est. 0.7% sequential).
Net Interest Income (NII): Expansions continue due to lower funding costs (+1.9% sequentially). Broader margins stabilized amid BoC’s rate pause, framing to compress slightly in mid-2025.

Capital Markets Context

CMRev Decline: Capital markets revenues fell ≈9.5B C$ (YoY +20%) after robust Q1 moderation. Trading revenues (-17.2% YoQ) and securities gains (-17% YoY) dominated headwinds, while brokerage commissions (+0.6% YoQ) provided partial offset.
M&A Activity: Pipeline remains sparse due to tariff uncertainty, despite notable deals like Sunoco LP’s $12.6B acquisition (BMO lead advisor).

Bank Valuation & Dividend Policies

Franchise Picks: Top-tier Hold/Underperform – Buy ratings favored stability and resilience.
Dividends Increases: Six banks hiked quarterly dividends (e.g., RY, NA, TD), reflecting stable capital levels despite moderation in growth expectations. Dividend growth expectations hover around 15% CAGR for Buy-rated stocks.
Share Buybacks: Minimal YoY impact observed (e.g., TD repurchased 30M shares).

Concluding Outlook

Value Proposition: Banks maintain solid CET2 (avg. 13.7%), underpinned by steady internal capital generation. Weakness in residential mortgages (due to housing uncertainty) contrasts with resilient commercial portfolios, especially NA’s CWB integrati .
Economic Risk: U.S. tariffs, inflation, labour softness constrain growth forecasts. BoC’s stance signaling caution, Q3 CET1 ratios are expected to stabilize, mid-fiscal 2025.

Jefferies maintains cautious optimism, recommending Hold/Buy dynamics based on fundamental stability vs. cyclical risks.

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