2025-06-10-Jefferies-同步金融（SYF）_SYF信贷-净冲销（NCOs）大幅改善且拖欠（DQ）下降_8页_361kb

Synchrony Financial Summary

Core Content

Synchrony Financial (SYF) reported its May 2025 credit results, showing notable improvements in both delinquency rates and net charge-offs. The report is an equity research analysis from Jefferies, offering a price target and investment recommendation for SYF.

Key Financial Metrics

• Delinquency Rates (DQs):

  • May 2025: 4.20%
  • Month-over-Month (M/M) Change: -10 bps (better than the seasonal historical average of -4 bps)
  • Year-over-Year (Y/Y) Change: -30 bps (flat compared to the prior month's Y/Y change)
  • Loan Growth: Tepid, with a M/M growth of +0.4% and a Y/Y decline of -2.4%

• Net Charge-offs (NCOs):

  • May 2025: 5.20%
  • M/M Change: -110 bps (significantly better than the historical seasonal average of -20 bps)
  • Y/Y Change: -120 bps (an improvement from the prior month's -40 bps Y/Y change)
  • Day Count: 25, which is on the low end for the year

Investment Recommendation

• Rating: Buy
• Price Target: $68.00 (+12% from current price of $60.83)
• Market Cap: $23.1B
• Float: 101.7%
• Average Daily Volume (ADV): 214.64 million shares

Valuation Methodology

Jefferies' price target is based on a 7.5x multiple on 2026E EPS, consistent with peer price target multiples. The valuation considers various methodologies including market risk, growth rate, revenue streams, DCF, EBITDA, EPS, and multiples like EV/EBITDA and P/E.

Analyst Certifications

All analysts involved in the report have certified that the views expressed reflect their personal opinions and that their compensation is not directly or indirectly related to the recommendations or views in the report.

Risk Factors

• Credit Risk: Continued improvements in DQs and NCOs are important for reverting to historical loss levels.
• Regulatory Risk: Ongoing regulatory scrutiny in the financial services sector.
• Economic Sensitivity: Performance may be affected by general economic conditions.
• Partner Concentration: Risk associated with reliance on a diverse but potentially concentrated set of partners.
• Currency Risk: For investors in non-US currencies, exchange rate fluctuations may affect returns.

Investment Considerations

• The report is not intended as personalized investment advice.
• Past performance is not indicative of future results.
• Investors should consider their own financial situation and consult with financial advisors.
• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest due to business relationships with covered companies.

Analyst Team

• John Hecht – Equity Analyst
• Matthew Hurwit, CFA – Equity Analyst
• Alexander Villalobos – Equity Associate
• Ibrahim Kargbo – Equity Associate

Other Important Disclosures

• Jefferies may have conflicts of interest and is not liable for errors or omissions in third-party content.
• The report is intended for professional or institutional investors in certain jurisdictions.
• It is not suitable for retail investors in Dubai, Hong Kong, Singapore, and other regions.
• Jefferies does not provide tailored or personalized research.
• The report is not an offer or solicitation to buy or sell any securities.

Summary of Trends

• DQs: Improved M/M but remain flat Y/Y, still comping negative.
• NCOs: Showed a significant M/M improvement, beating historical seasonal averages.
• Loan Growth: Tepid, in-line with expectations, but declined Y/Y.

Additional Information

• The report includes historical data and charts on delinquency rates and net charge-offs.
• The report is subject to regulatory restrictions and may not be updated due to compliance issues.
• The "Jefferies Franchise Picks" are based on fundamental analysis and investment themes, and only include Buy rated stocks.