20230221-招银国际-广联达-002410.SZ-Clear_operating_leverage_from_SaaS_6页_1mb
报告摘要
Glodon (002410 CH) Summary
Core Content and Key Highlights
Glodon (002410 CH) reported a strong FY22 with revenue of RMB6.59bn (+17% YoY) and net profit of RMB963mn (+46% YoY). The company achieved its RMB4bn target for newly signed SaaS contracts, indicating solid growth in the SaaS segment. The construction costing SaaS revenue reached RMB4,773mn (+25.16% YoY), while construction management revenue slightly missed expectations due to the impact of the COVID resurgence in Q4 2022.
Despite the revenue miss in the construction management segment, operating margins improved due to operating leverage and increased high-margin SaaS revenue exposure. The company maintains a BUY rating with a target price of RMB78.56, which is based on a 11x EV/sales multiple for FY23E, in line with the 3-year mean of the China SaaS market. The China SaaS market is currently trading at 6.87x EV/sales, which is 1-SD below the 3-year mean of 12.05x, suggesting potential undervaluation.
Main Points and Key Information
Revenue and Profit Growth
- FY22 Revenue: RMB6,587mn, slightly below forecast but in line with consensus.
- FY22 Net Profit: RMB963mn, beating the analyst's estimate by 9%.
- EPS (Reported): RMB0.82 for FY22, with a YoY growth of 31.7%.
- Consensus EPS: RMB0.82 for FY22, with a YoY growth of 21.5%.
SaaS Performance
- Newly Signed SaaS Contracts: Reached RMB3.9bn, aligning with the RMB4bn target.
- Unearned Revenue: Expected to be a focus in March when full results are announced.
- Construction Costing Revenue: RMB4,773mn (+25.16% YoY), showing strong growth.
- Construction Management Revenue: RMB1,322mn (+9.66% YoY), slightly below expectations due to Q4 2022 disruptions.
Valuation Metrics
- EV/Sales (FY23E): 7.1x, which is 1-SD below the 3-year mean of 12.05x.
- P/E (FY23E): 69.5x, reflecting a discounted valuation.
- ROE (FY22E): 14.9%, showing improvement in profitability.
- Net Gearing (FY22E): -54.4%, indicating a net asset position.
Market Position
- Glodon and Kingdee (268 HK) are highlighted as top China SaaS picks.
- The company is seen as having strong visibility in the SaaS market and solid growth prospects.
Financial Summary
| Metric | FY20A | FY21A | FY22E | FY23E | FY24E |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Revenue (RMB mn) | 4,005 | 5,619 | 6,883 | 7,921 | 9,297 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 13.1 | 40.3 | 22.5 | 15.1 | 17.4 |
| Net Profit (RMB mn) | 330.4 | 661.0 | 883.9 | 1,073.6 | 1,375.6 |
| EPS (Reported) (RMB) | 0.29 | 0.56 | 0.74 | 0.90 | 1.15 |
| YoY Growth (%) | 37.4 | 96.6 | 31.7 | 21.5 | 28.1 |
| EV/Sales (x) | 13.9 | 10.1 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 6.0 |
Valuation Table
| Company | Rating | Market Cap (US$ mn) | Price (LC) | Target Price (LC) | EV/Sales (FY22E) | EV/Sales (FY23E) | FCF Margin (%) | Sales CAGR (FY21-24E) | EPS CAGR (FY21-24E) |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Glodon | BUY | 10,886 | 62.64 | 78.56 | 8.3 | 7.1 | 13% | 15.1% | 28.1% |
| MYC | HOLD | 1,532 | 6.13 | 6.39 | 2.8 | 2.4 | 14% | 14% | -27% |
| Yonyou | HOLD | 11,810 | 23.58 | 22.24 | 7.7 | 6.2 | 4% | 13% | 17% |
| Kingdee | BUY | 7,101 | 16.02 | 23.56 | 9.3 | 7.5 | 19% | 4% | n.a. |
| Kingsoft Office | NR | 18,993 | 282.29 | N/A | 31.1 | 23.4 | 59% | 59% | 28% |
| Autodesk | NR | 47,465 | 219.98 | N/A | 11.1 | 9.7 | 36% | 36% | 23% |
| Mean | |||||||||
| Median |
Shareholding Structure
- Diao Zhizhong - Chairman: 16.0%
- Other Co-founders: 16.3%
Share Performance
| Period | Absolute | Relative |
|---|---|---|
| 1-month | -5.5% | -4.4% |
| 3-months | +16.9% | +7.5% |
| 6-months | +28.7% | +29.3% |
Analyst Notes
- Maintain BUY due to strong SaaS performance and improving margins.
- The target price of RMB78.56 is based on 11x EV/sales for FY23E.
- China SaaS market is considered undervalued, with a discounted EV/sales multiple.
- The company is expected to accelerate project delivery in FY1Q23.
Risk and Disclaimer
- Investment risks are inherent, and past performance does not guarantee future results.
- The report is not tailored to individual investors, and independent evaluation is recommended.
- CMBIGM does not provide investment advice and conflicts of interest may exist.
Analyst Certification
- The research analyst certifies that the views expressed accurately reflect personal views.
- No compensation is linked to the specific views in the report.
CMBIGM Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock not rated by CMBIGM.
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
Company Overview
- CMB International Global Markets Limited is a subsidiary of China Merchants Bank.
- The report is for intended recipients only and may not be reproduced or distributed without prior written consent.
This summary highlights Glodon's strong FY22 performance, especially in the SaaS segment, and its potential for future growth. The BUY rating is maintained due to improving margins, strong SaaS contracts, and undervaluation in the China SaaS market.
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