IMF-财政整合：评估成功因素、影响和设计（英）-2023.3-39页_1mb

Overview

Fiscal consolidation is crucial for many countries post-COVID-19, addressing high public debt and deficits. This paper surveys literature on past consolidation episodes to identify success factors, impacts on growth and inequality, design elements, and the role of fiscal institutions. Success rates range from 1/5 to 2/3, influenced by economic conditions, political support, and institutional strength. Fiscal consolidations often have contractionary short-term effects but can boost long-term growth and reduce inequality with proper design.

Pre-Existing Conditions

• Success Factors: High income levels, favorable global and domestic environments, strong fiscal institutions, a strong track record in fiscal management, and broad-based political support.
• Foundations: Countries like advanced economies (AEs) and emerging markets (EMs) have higher success rates due to better institutions. Low-income developing countries (LIDCs) and EMs may need back-loaded consolidations for better outcomes, allowing time for structural reforms and capacity building.

Growth and Distributional Impacts

• Short-Term: Fiscal consolidations typically reduce output due to contractionary fiscal multipliers, with larger impacts in closed economies and recessions. They often widen inequality more with expenditure-based cuts than tax-based ones.
• Long-Term: Successful consolidations can improve growth by freeing up fiscal space and crowding in private investment. Protecting public investment and social spending helps mitigate inequality and supports long-term equity.

Consolidation Approaches

• Size and Pace: Annual CAPB adjustments of 1-2% of GDP, lasting 3-4 years. Faster consolidations may work in emergencies but increase output losses. Gradual, back-loaded approaches reduce short-term risks and stabilize debt.
• Policy Mix: Most consolidations use both revenue and expenditure measures. Tailor mix to country context—spending cuts in high-income countries, revenue mobilization elsewhere. Prioritize less distortionary taxes like property or environmental taxes.
• Composition: Avoid cuts in productive areas like education or health; protect social spending to ease distributional impacts.

Role of Institutions and Capacity Development

• Importance: Strong fiscal institutions and capacity building are key for credible consolidation plans. They enhance transparency, accountability, and implementation.
• Practices: Start capacity development early, focusing on core public financial management (PFM) functions in LIDCs. Integrate reforms with fiscal rules and frameworks for sustained success.

Policy Implications

• Post-COVID Adjustments: Countries need large, carefully timed consolidations. Balance speed and depth to avoid output losses and inequality. Build credibility through effective communication and anchor expectations.
• General Recommendations: Tailor designs to country income groups, prioritize gradual and expense-based consolidations in vulnerable economies, ensure structural reforms for long-term growth, and foster international cooperation for debt sustainability.