IMF-加强巴布亚新几内亚基于规则的财政框架_巴布亚新几内亚（英）-2025.6_24页_1mb

Papua New Guinea Fiscal Framework Strengthening

This report analyzes the need to strengthen Papua New Guinea's (PNG) fiscal framework due to rising public debt and associated risks. Key findings include:

• PNG's public debt has surged since the Global Financial Crisis, reaching over 50% of GDP, straining fiscal sustainability. The existing framework lacks clear debt anchors and operational rules, leading to frequent policy disconnects.

• Recommendations propose introducing a public debt anchor between 30% and 40% of GDP (建议设定于 35%) and a primary balance rule to guide debt convergence. Specifically, it suggests a primary surplus target to achieve the anchor by 2032.

• Calibration involves a 60% debt ceiling for prudence, with a transition period ending in 2032. A primary balance rule aims for a 2.5% surplus by 2027 and gradual easing. Supportive measures include Public Financial Management (PFM) reforms, an expenditure cap, and escape clauses to handle economic shocks.

• Policy implications emphasize improving institutional capacity, fiscal data reliability, and mitigating procyclical resource revenue risks to ensure long-term debt sustainability and inclusive growth.