2022-12-20-菲沙研究所-菲沙研究所-加拿大三种替代财政锚的评估（英）_41页_720kb

Executive Summary

加拿大政府当前和未来财政政策不可持续，净债务与GDP比将在2050年升至131%。为防止债务持续增长，政府应采取财政锚点。研究比较了三种锚点：债务减少目标、利息支付收入比上限、预算平衡规则。结果表明，通过支出削减实现预算平衡的效果最佳，因为它能在维持公共支出的同时提高私人消费。其次是债务减少目标，最后是利息支付收入比上限。财政调整应优先通过减少支出而非增加税收。

Analysis

Fiscal Anchors Overview

• Debt Reduction Target: Set a specific debt-to-GDP ratio target (e.g., 50%) and reduce spending proportionally.
• Interest Payment Ceiling: Adjust fiscal policies to keep interest payments below 10% of revenues.
• Balanced Budget Rule: Achieve a balanced budget through either expenditure restraint or tax increases.

Simulation Results

• Debt Reduction Target: Reduces debt-to-GDP ratio to 50% within 10 years; increases economic growth by nearly 1 percentage point initially.
• Interest Payment Ceiling: Requires tax increases, leading to slower economic growth and a gradual decrease in the debt ratio.
• Balanced Budget Rule: Divided into two subcases:
  • Expenditure Restraint: Balances the budget through spending cuts, allowing for higher private consumption and public expenditures in present value terms.
  • Tax Increases: Balances the budget through higher taxes, resulting in a sharp drop in economic growth and a slower reduction in the debt ratio.

Ranking of Fiscal Anchors

Based on the potential to provide public and private services over the 25-year model horizon:

1. Balanced Budget Rule (Expenditure Restraint)
2. Debt Reduction Target
3. Interest Payment Ceiling

Recommendations

• Governments should prioritize expenditure-based adjustments for fiscal consolidation.
• Strict enforcement of fiscal rules should include ceilings on expenditure growth to avoid procyclical spending, but avoid targeting investments or social services.
• Adopting simple, flexible, and enforceable fiscal anchors is essential for long-term fiscal sustainability.

Conclusion

Fiscal consolidation through expenditure restraint provides superior economic outcomes compared to tax-based adjustments. This recommendation aligns with empirical evidence from studies on fiscal austerity in OECD countries.