IMF国际货币组织全球-Chad_Fifth-Review-under-the-Extended-Credit-Facility-Arrangement-and-Financing-Assurances-Review_70页_5mb

报告摘要

Chad: Fifth Review Under the Extended Credit Facility Arrangement and Financing Assurances Review

Core Content Summary

The International Monetary Fund (IMF) completed the Fifth Review of Chad's Extended Credit Facility (ECF) arrangement on December 13, 2019, enabling a disbursement of SDR 28.04 million (about US$38.8 million), bringing total disbursements under the arrangement to SDR 196.28 million (about US$271.7 million).

The review was based on discussions held in N'Djamena from October 24 to November 5, 2019, with the IMF staff team led by Mr. E. Gemayel, and supported by other officials and regional institutions.

Main Views and Key Information

Program Performance

Overall performance was broadly satisfactory.
All end-June quantitative performance criteria (QPCs) and the indicative target (IT) on social spending were met.
Domestic arrears payments exceeded the target.
Emergency spending procedures (DAO) were under control, but regularization was low at 20% (target: 70%).

Structural Reforms

Progress on structural reforms was mixed.
Two out of five structural benchmarks (SBs) due by end-September were met.
The VAT taxpayer list was finalized and integrated into the computerized system in October.
Restructuring and funding plans for public banks (BCC and CBT) were not yet finalized.
The audit of domestic arrears is ongoing, but delayed and missed the deadline for adopting a clearance strategy (SB, end-November).

Fiscal and Debt Management

Fiscal consolidation continued, with the non-oil primary balance at -4.2% of non-oil GDP.
The wage bill slightly exceeded projections due to military salary restitution.
Public debt is improving, with non-oil revenue increasing and debt service-to-revenue ratio at 12.8% in 2019, below the LIC DSA threshold of 14%.
Non-concessional borrowing was zero, as per the program's requirements.

Economic Outlook

Non-oil growth is projected to rise to 2% in 2019 and 4% starting in 2021.
Oil production is expected to increase due to new extraction technologies.
Inflation is projected to remain below 3%.
The current account deficit is expected to widen slightly, but net foreign assets are projected to grow due to FDI inflows.

Risks

Downside risks include:
- Worsening security situation.
- Loosening fiscal discipline, especially before parliamentary elections in early 2020.
- Deterioration in public banks' positions.
- Potential retaliation from oil and gas companies against BEAC forex regulations.
Upside risks include sustained higher oil prices, which could improve the fiscal position.

Regional Support

Chad's program is supported by CEMAC-wide efforts to maintain monetary policy and financial sector stability.
BEAC has implemented tighter foreign exchange regulations, and CEMAC member states are working to build regional reserves.
Chad has provided all contracts with oil companies to regional institutions to ensure export receipts repatriation.

Policy Recommendations

Continue fiscal consolidation and prudent fiscal policy.
Strengthen domestic revenue mobilization, including VAT collection and reducing exemptions.
Create sufficient fiscal space for social and development spending.
Address public banks' vulnerabilities and develop a clearance strategy for domestic arrears.
Continue structural reforms to enhance governance and business climate.
Strengthen anti-corruption frameworks.

Key Documents

Press Release No. 19/460: Announced the completion of the review and disbursement.
Staff Report: Detailed the economic performance and policy discussions.
Staff Supplement: Updated recent developments.
Statement by the Executive Director for Chad: Summarized the IMF's views.

Additional Notes

The IMF's transparency policy allows for the deletion of market-sensitive information.
Letters of Intent, Memorandum of Economic and Financial Policies, and Technical Memorandum of Understanding are included in the staff report.
Chad's debt position has improved, with external arrears decreasing after a debt agreement with Angola.
Security concerns and social tensions remain significant, with parliamentary elections scheduled for early 2020 and presidential elections in 2021.

Conclusion

The IMF supports the completion of the fifth review, acknowledging Chad's satisfactory performance and commitment to the program despite ongoing security and social challenges. The disbursement will support economic stabilization and growth resumption, particularly in the non-oil sector, while continued reforms and fiscal discipline are essential to sustain progress and address long-term vulnerabilities.