2025-06-11-Jefferies-追踪美国建筑指标_14页_924kb

Construction Industry Update: June 11, 2025

Key Findings

• Market Uncertainty: High market uncertainty is impacting construction activity.
• Architecture Firms: AIA reports that many architecture firms are seeing recession-like conditions.
• Project Volatility: Tariffs and economic uncertainty are contributing to increased project volatility and delays.
• Sector-Specific Trends: While some commercial sub-sectors (like institutional) are strong, residential construction is weakening, especially single-family housing permits and starts.

Challenges

• Tariffs: Escalating material costs due to tariffs, causing project abandonment and delays.
• Economic Uncertainty: Reduced builder confidence, with 90% of survey respondents noting price volatility and difficulties in pricing due to tariffs.
• Financing: Elevated interest rates continue to weigh on the housing market.

Residential Trends

• Residential Construction: Declines in permits and starts for single-family homes; multi-family starts slightly increased in April.
• Housing Market: NAHB Housing Market Index dropped, reflecting negative sentiment for existing and new home sales.

Commercial Construction

• Momentum Index: Strong growth in institutional projects but subdued commercial activity.
• Dodge Starts: A decrease in construction starts indicates ongoing challenges in finalizing projects.

Forecast Overview

• Residential: Expected minimal growth (or slight decline) in residential starts for both single and multi-family homes, alongside varying forecasts for remodel projects.

Conclusion

The market is facing significant headwinds, with residential demand weakening and commercial projects facing heightened volatility amid economic and tariff uncertainties.