2025-06-11-Jefferies-食品零售客流量及网络流量追踪_5月Trader_Joe_s领先_KR增长_23页_1mb

Food Retail Foot Traffic Tracker: Trader Joe's Maintains #1 Position

Key Findings

• Discount Channel Dominance: Trader Joe's (TGT) holds the #1 Year-over-Year (YoY) foot traffic ranking, accelerating momentum with the lowest YoY decline (+ KR gained ground, moving from 2nd to #3, as H-E-B (+3) and Publix (+1) improved their rankings, surpassing Aldi (down 1) and Sprouts (down 1). SFM remains steady as a top performer but dropped one spot after H-E-B acceleration.
• Sequential Improvement: All tracked retailers saw sequential Month-over-Month (MoM) foot traffic improvements in May, with T

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Food Retail Foot Traffic Tracker: Trader Joe's Maintains #1 Position

Key Findings

• Discount Channel Dominance: Trader Joe's (TGT) holds the #1 Year-over-Year (YoY) foot traffic ranking, accelerating momentum with the lowest YoY decline (+3.9%) YoY Gained ground, moving from 2nd to #3, as H-E-B (+3%) and Publix (+1%) improved their rankings, surpassing Aldi (down 1) and Sprouts (down 1). SFM remains steady as a top performer but dropped one spot after H-E-B acceleration.
• Retailer Rankings: Trade Joe's #1 (unchanged MoM), Whole Foods Market #2 (unchanged), H-E-B #3 (+2 rank), Sprouts #4 (unchanged), Aldi #5 (+1), Sam's Club #6 (+3), Costco #7 (-1). Kroger (+1) improved sequentially but still ranked #12 YoY.
• Mass Channel Improvement: The Mass channel saw significant improvement (+240 bps sequentially), easing TGT pressures, while TGT traffic remains the lowest ranked (#14). TGT app downloads/usage lag behind competitors.
• Grocery Channel Inflection: The grocery channel saw sequential improvement (+145 bps), with several retailers (including KR, Publix, WMT) showing positive YoY traffic for the first time in years, though it ranks #4 relative to channels.
• Digital Trends Mixed: While TGT foot traffic sustained, digital trends declined with app downloads averaging -5% YoY and active users/website visits falling significantly (-113 bps and -630 bps).
• Drivers: Consumers continue seeking value and differentiation amid high prices; SFM, Whole Foods, and potentially premium clubs show strong differentiation foot traffic; Mass retail (excluding premium/grocery) sees robust year-over-year growth overall.

Notable Trends

• TGT's momentum "accelerated" though Mass improvement is notable.
• SFM "posited another impressive quarter" despite expected Q2 deceleration.
• The correlation between positive foot traffic and higher consumer prices/wages.
• Blunted impact of holiday shopping relative to previous years.

Key Message

Discount channels, led by Trader Joe's, maintain the strongest foot traffic ranking due to consumer demand for value alongside differentiated offerings (Whole Foods, SFM, Premium Clubs). Digital growth is seeing deceleration trends emerge alongside continued in-person traffic strength.