2025-05-20-Jefferies-美国建筑指标信号不一_8页_206kb

US Construction Indicators Mixed Signals and Company Analysis

Key Findings

• Recent ABC data (April) shows a decrease in backlogs for infrastructure and heavy industrial projects, but a marginal increase in commercial projects sequentially.
• However, sales and profit confidence stabilized, with improvements in employment across all end-markets except non-residential.
• PPI data indicates low single-digit year-over-year price increases for key construction products.
• Overall, the construction sector displays mixed signals, with stable confidence and employment but declining traditional backlogs.

Company Recommendations

• Buys: CRH (ticker CRH LN), Heidelberg Materials (HEI GR), Saint-Gobain (SGO FP), Sika (SIKA SW).
• Holds: Holcim (HOLN SW), Kingspan (KSP ID).
• Bonds and valuation risks noted, emphasizing market volatility and potential currency impacts.

Analyst Notes

• Focuses on European stocks with US exposures.
• Risks include economic uncertainties, conflict of interest from investment banking services, and regulatory disclosures.
• Valuation based on metrics like P/E ratios and PPI trends, with expectations for total returns ranging from -10% to +15%.