20250918-华泰期货-农产品日报_巴西供应强劲_原糖依旧承压_9页_2mb

The daily report covers key market updates and analysis for cotton, sugar, and pulp as of the most recent trading day.

Cotton:

• Futures: The 2601 contract closed at 13890 yuan/ton, down 5 yuan/ton or 0.04%.
• Spot: 3128B cotton futures prices in Xinjiang were 15226 yuan/ton, with a basis of CF01+1336.
• Market: India's July cotton imports rose sharply to 5.801 million tons, with Brazil and Australia topping the imports due to high demand. The USDA report revised global supply and trade figures, suggesting potential medium-term support for cotton but cautioning on current export sales pace.
• Outlook: Short-term: Neutral, in the 13700-14300 range. Medium-term: Bearish. Long-term: Optimistic if new supply expectations materialize.

Sugar:

• Futures: The SR2001 contract closed at 5372 yuan/ton, down 49 yuan/ton or 0.905%. Spot prices in Nanning and Kunming saw slight decreases.
• Market: Brazil's sugar production for July was significantly higher; however, concerns over domestic demand and supply pressures limited further downside. Short-term profit-taking and inventories are key factors.
• Outlook: Short-term neutral; expect a "grind" until a bottom emerges. Medium-to-long-term drivers depend on fundamentals.

Pulp:

• Futures: The 2511 pulp contract closed at 5042 yuan/ton, down 26 yuan/ton or 0.514%. SmartLiners pulp prices in Shandong increased by 10 yuan/ton.
• Market: Supply concerns are present, but domestic inventories are high. Demand remains weak in Europe and China. Upcoming paper production capacity may improve supply, selectively.
• Outlook: Neutral, in a bearish medium-term context. Short-term trading may face challenges due to weak fundamentals.

Risk Factors: Macroeconomic conditions, tropical weather, U.S. production data, Brazilian supply/demand, domestic inventories, policy changes, and global political events.