20180412-USDA-USDA_Oil_Crops_Outlook_2018.04.12_14页_141kb

Oil Crops Outlook Summary

Core Content

The Oil Crops Outlook report by the Economic Research Service (ERS) provides an analysis of the U.S. and global oil crops market conditions for the 2017/18 marketing year. It highlights trends in production, use, exports, and prices for key oil crops such as soybeans, soybean meal, soybean oil, cottonseed, cottonseed meal, cottonseed oil, and peanuts.

Main Points

U.S. Soybean Market

• Soybean Crush Forecast: The 2017/18 soybean crush is forecast to increase by 10 million bushels to 1.97 billion bushels, driven by higher domestic use and exports of soybean meal.
  • Domestic use of soybean meal is expected to rise by 250,000 short tons to 34.55 million.
  • Exports of soybean meal are projected to increase by 100,000 tons to 12.5 million short tons.
• Season-Ending Stocks: Season-ending soybean stocks are forecast to decrease by 5 million bushels to 550 million bushels due to lower seed and residual use.
• Soybean Oil:
  • U.S. soybean oil production increased by 2 percent, while use increased negligibly.
  • Season-ending soybean oil stocks rose again in February.
  • U.S. soybean oil exports are forecast to increase by 100 million pounds to 2 billion pounds.
  • Soybean oil prices weakened to an 11-month low of 30.3 cents per pound in March.

Acreage Intentions for 2018/19

• Soybean Acreage: U.S. soybean planting intentions for 2018/19 are down 1.2 million acres from 2017 to 89 million acres.
  • Acreage reductions in the western Corn Belt and Central Plains offset increases elsewhere.
  • Farmers in Indiana, Kentucky, Wisconsin, and the Mississippi Delta plan to increase soybean acreage.
• Other Oilseeds:
  • Canola: Sown canola acreage is expected to remain nearly unchanged at 2.1 million acres, with a 4% increase in North Dakota and a reduction in Oklahoma.
  • Sunflowerseed: Intended acreage is down 18,000 acres to 1.385 million, with the largest reduction in South Dakota. Oil-type sunflowerseed acreage is up 19,000 acres to 1.235 million.
  • Flaxseed: Acreage is down 26 percent to 225,000 acres.
  • Peanuts: Acreage intentions are down 18 percent to 1.54 million acres, with the largest declines in Georgia and Texas.

Global Soybean Market

• Global Production: Global soybean production for 2017/18 is forecast down 6.1 million metric tons to 334.8 million.
  • Argentina's production is expected to fall to a 9-year low of 40 million metric tons.
  • Uruguay and India also experienced production declines.
• Global Stocks: Global soybean stocks are forecast to decline by 3.6 million tons to 90.8 million.
• Argentine Exports: Argentine soybean exports (October-September) are expected to slump to an 18-year low of 4.2 million tons.
  • Argentine soybean crush is forecast to be 1.8 million tons lower this month to 41.2 million tons.
  • Exports of soybean meal and oil are expected to decline to 29.5 million tons and 4.75 million tons, respectively.

Brazil Soybean Market

• Production: Brazil is forecast to produce a record 115 million metric tons of soybeans, driven by record area and improved yields.
• Exports: Brazilian soybean exports are expected to rise to 73.1 million tons from 63.1 million tons in 2016/17.
• Soybean Meal Exports: Brazilian processors are expected to increase soybean meal exports to an all-time high of 15.45 million tons.
• Stocks: By September 30, Brazilian soybean stocks are expected to decrease by 4.4 million tons from the year-earlier level, potentially boosting U.S. export sales.

Key Information

• U.S. Soybean Meal: Prices strengthened to nearly $380 per short ton in March, compared to $320 in January.
• U.S. Soybean Oil: Prices weakened to an 11-month low, making U.S. supplies more competitive in international trade.
• U.S. Peanut Acreage: Down 18 percent to 1.54 million acres due to high yields and declining prices.
• Cotton Planting Intentions: Up 7 percent to 13.5 million acres, indicating a shift back to cotton after a decline in previous years.

Tables Summary

• Table 1: Shows annual U.S. soybean supply and disappearance data for 2015/16, 2016/17, and 2017/18.
• Table 2: Details U.S. soybean meal supply and disappearance for the same periods.
• Table 3: Provides U.S. soybean oil supply and disappearance data.
• Table 4: Includes U.S. cottonseed supply and disappearance.
• Table 5: Shows U.S. cottonseed meal supply and disappearance.
• Table 6: Details U.S. cottonseed oil supply and disappearance.
• Table 7: Summarizes U.S. peanut supply and disappearance.
• Table 8: Lists oilseed prices received by U.S. farmers for the 2017/18 marketing year.

Conclusion

The report outlines a mixed outlook for the U.S. and global oil crops markets, with strong domestic demand for soybean meal and oil, and significant production declines in Argentina due to drought. Brazil is expected to compensate for these declines with a record harvest, which may benefit U.S. exports. The U.S. market is showing signs of increased competitiveness due to lower oil prices, while acreage intentions for some oilseeds are declining.