2025-06-11-花旗集团-泡泡玛特（9992）_泡泡玛特（9992.HK）_不断增长的知识产权影响力；明显的增长驱动因素；重申买入_15页_3mb

Citigroup's Analysis and Summary

Recommendation
Citigroup reiterates a "Buy" recommendation on Pop Mart (9992.HK) with a new target price of HK$308, based on growing global recognition of its IPs and successful new product rollouts.

Key Findings

• Pop Mart's iconic IP, LABUBU, is gaining significant global traction, evident in celebrity endorsements, auction house demand, and second-hand market price increases, indicating strong IP influence and consumer demand.
• New product launches, such as the THE MONSTER Wacky Mart series and themed pop-up stores, act as short-term growth catalysts, enhancing IP content and extending lifecycle.
• The company's earnings outlook is revised upward, with expected net profit growth of +124% YoY in 2025E and +40% YoY in 2026E, driven by strong overseas expansion in North America and Europe, contributing +159% YoY overseas revenue and +54% YoY China revenue for 2025E.
• Price increases in the US market and diversified supply chain mitigations reduce risks, supporting strong performance under 38x FY26E P/E valuation.

Valuation

• The target price is set at HK$308 (38x FY26E P/E), reflecting a 10% premium to the stock's 4-year average, due to improving growth execution and execution capabilities.
• Pop Mart trades at a premium compared to regional peers due to its fast overseas growth.

Risks

• Key risks include rising competition from new market entrants in China, potential disappointments in global expansion, challenges in IP commercialization, failure to renew licenses, and increased regulatory scrutiny.