深度-DNV-2050年海洋的未来：海水养殖预测（英文）-2021.6-48页_25mb

Summary of "OCEANS' FUTURE TO 2050: DNV Marine Aquaculture Forecast 2021"

Core Content

This report, OCEANS' FUTURE TO 2050: DNV Marine Aquaculture Forecast 2021, provides a comprehensive forecast of the future of marine aquaculture up to 2050. It outlines the role of marine aquaculture in meeting global food demands, the impact of technological innovation, and the sustainability challenges and opportunities that lie ahead.

Main Views and Key Information

1. Global Food Demand and Marine Aquaculture's Role

• The global population is projected to exceed 9.4 billion by 2050, with a significant increase in food demand.
• Rising living standards and dietary shifts are driving the need for more seafood, which is expected to be met largely by marine aquaculture.
• Capture fisheries have reached their sustainability limits and will not grow further, making marine aquaculture essential for future seafood supply.
• Marine aquaculture production is expected to more than double from 30 million tonnes (live weight) today to 74 million tonnes by 2050, matching the current output of capture fisheries.

2. Species Contributions

• Finfish will be the most important contributor to the world food supply from marine aquaculture, accounting for over 50% of edible weight.
• Molluscs will remain the most farmed species by live weight.
• Crustaceans and seaweed will also play significant roles, with seaweed being primarily used for non-food purposes.

3. Regional Breakdown

• Asia will maintain its dominant position in marine aquaculture, with South East Asia and Greater China leading in finfish and crustacean production.
• Latin America is expected to overtake Europe in marine aquaculture output due to increased production of finfish and crustaceans.
• Greater China will be the largest producer of molluscs, while Europe, North America, and Latin America will lead in offshore and onshore finfish production.
• OECD Pacific (including Australia, Japan, and South Korea) will see slower growth compared to other regions.

4. Technological Innovation and Sustainability

• Technological advancements are critical for the sustainable growth of marine aquaculture.
• Onshore and offshore production technologies will gain traction, particularly for high-value finfish species like salmon and cobia.
• Lower production costs, driven by accumulated experience, will support the adoption of new technologies.
• Sustainable practices include:
  • Disease control and improved fish health management.
  • Reducing environmental impact through innovations such as digitalization, automation, and multipurpose platforms.
  • Leveraging the ecosystem services of molluscs and seaweed, such as carbon sequestration and habitat creation.

5. Challenges and Opportunities

• Marine aquaculture faces challenges such as disease outbreaks, environmental degradation, and competition for ocean space.
• The industry must balance growth with ecological concerns to avoid negative impacts on biodiversity and water quality.
• The report emphasizes the importance of policy support, investment, and technological foresight in ensuring the industry's long-term sustainability.

6. Methodology and Scope

• The forecast is based on a system dynamics simulation model that considers population growth, living standards, and dietary preferences.
• It focuses on long-term trends rather than short-term market fluctuations.
• The forecast does not include freshwater aquaculture or seaweed for food use, as the report is centered on marine aquaculture.

7. Consumer Behavior and Sustainability Index

• Protein consumption is influenced by living standards, population age, and manual labor intensity.
• A sustainability index is used to compare the environmental impact of different protein sources, including seafood, terrestrial plants, and meats.
• The index considers greenhouse gas emissions, land use, energy use, acidification, and eutrophication.

8. Projections and Trends

• Asia will dominate marine aquaculture demand, with South East Asia and Greater China more than doubling their production by 2050.
• Europe will have the highest per capita seafood consumption in 2050, followed by Latin America and South East Asia.
• The report highlights the importance of global collaboration and policy alignment to ensure that marine aquaculture can meet the world’s growing demand for seafood sustainably.

Conclusion

Marine aquaculture is poised to become a major pillar of global food security by 2050, driven by population growth, rising living standards, and increasing consumer demand for sustainable seafood. The industry will require significant technological innovation, particularly in offshore and onshore finfish farming, to meet these demands while addressing environmental and social challenges. DNV’s forecast serves as a valuable tool for investors, policymakers, and industry stakeholders to make informed decisions about the future of marine aquaculture and the broader 'blue economy'.