2021-05-31-DNV-Ocean_s_Future_to_2050,Marine_Aquaculture_Forecast_48页_26mb

Summary of "OCEANS' FUTURE TO 2050" - Marine Aquaculture Forecast 2021

Core Content

This report, OCEANS' FUTURE TO 2050 - Marine Aquaculture Forecast 2021, provides a comprehensive analysis of the future trajectory of marine aquaculture up to 2050. It outlines the role of marine aquaculture in addressing global food security, the impact of population growth and changes in living standards, and the potential for technological innovation to enhance sustainability and production capacity.

Main Viewpoints

• Marine aquaculture is set to become a major contributor to global food supply. It is projected to more than double in production from 30 million tonnes (live weight) today to 74 million tonnes by 2050, matching the current output of capture fisheries, which is expected to plateau due to sustainability limits.

• Finfish will play a dominant role in marine aquaculture. Finfish account for over 50% of the edible weight from marine aquaculture and will grow faster than molluscs due to their better live-to-edible weight ratio.

• Asia will remain the dominant region in marine aquaculture production. South East Asia and Greater China will see significant growth, surpassing OECD Pacific in production. Molluscs will continue to be the most farmed species by live weight, while finfish and crustaceans will be the most valuable in terms of market and protein content.

• Technological innovation is essential for sustainable growth. The development of new production technologies, such as onshore and offshore systems, will help address environmental concerns, improve fish health, and reduce the ecological footprint of aquaculture.

• Offshore and onshore technologies are gaining traction. Offshore fish farming, particularly for high-value species like salmon and cobia, is becoming more viable due to cost reductions and infrastructure development. These technologies are expected to lead in Greater China, Europe, and Latin America.

• Sustainability challenges remain. Disease outbreaks, environmental impact, and competition with other ocean uses are significant concerns. Addressing these requires better management practices, improved feed sources, and the integration of aquaculture into broader ocean sustainability strategies.

• Consumer behavior and dietary trends will shape future demand. As living standards improve, especially in developing regions, seafood consumption is expected to rise. However, in developed regions, demand may plateau or even decline due to a shift toward more sustainable and health-conscious diets.

Key Information

Global Production Trends

• Marine aquaculture production: Expected to increase from 30 million tonnes (live weight) to 74 million tonnes by 2050.
• Capture fisheries: Will remain at current levels due to sustainability limits.
• Protein consumption: Projected to increase by over 35% by 2050, driven by population growth and rising living standards.

Regional Breakdown

Species Breakdown

• Finfish: Most important contributor to protein supply from marine aquaculture. Expected to grow faster than molluscs.
• Crustaceans: Major food species, with whiteleg shrimp being the most farmed.
• Molluscs: Most farmed by live weight, but lower in market value compared to finfish and crustaceans.
• Seaweed: Non-food uses are a key driver of demand, and its production is expected to increase, particularly in China and Indonesia.

Technological Innovations

• Onshore and offshore systems: Will gain significant market share, especially in Greater China, Europe, and Latin America.
• Cost reduction: Due to accumulated experience and technological advancements, new fish-farming methods will become more economically viable.
• Digitalization and automation: Will play a key role in improving efficiency and sustainability.

Sustainability Considerations

• Environmental impact: Aquaculture must address issues like water pollution, biodiversity loss, and resource competition.
• Ecosystem services: Molluscs and seaweed can contribute to ocean restoration through carbon sequestration and habitat creation.
• Policy and governance: Will be crucial in supporting sustainable growth and managing ocean space usage.

Conclusion

This forecast underscores the critical role of marine aquaculture in meeting future global seafood demand. It emphasizes the need for innovation, sustainable practices, and supportive policies to ensure that aquaculture can grow without compromising ocean health. The report also highlights the importance of regional differences and the need for tailored strategies to meet local needs and conditions.