DNV-海洋到2050年的未来-蓝色经济的部门和区域预测（英）-2021-104页_15mb

Summary of "Ocean's Future to 2050" Report

Core Content

This report, "Ocean's Future to 2050," provides a comprehensive forecast of the Blue Economy's development up to the middle of the century. It highlights key trends, regional shifts, and the evolving relationship between humanity and the ocean, emphasizing the need for sustainable practices and integrated ocean management.

Main Trends and Highlights

1. Shift in the Blue Economy

• The Blue Economy is expected to transition toward sustainable activities aligned with improved human and planetary welfare.
• Investment in the Blue Economy will grow more slowly than global GDP due to the decline of the oil and gas sector and the slower growth of offshore wind compared to the overall GDP.
• Asia is projected to become the dominant region in the Blue Economy, with Greater China expected to account for 26% of Blue Economy capital expenditure (capex) by 2050.
• Europe will maintain a strong position, growing from 11% to 14% of ocean capex.
• The Middle East and North Africa will see a decline in capex due to reduced fossil fuel demand.

2. Energy Transition

• Nonfossil energy is expected to account for 50% of global energy production by 2050.
• Offshore wind will be the largest investment in the Blue Economy, growing from a small base to 50% of ocean capex by 2050.
• Offshore oil and gas will shrink from 80% to 25% of capex by 2050.
• Marine aquaculture will more than double in production and will approach the level of wild catch by 2050.
• Desalination capacity is expected to triple by mid-century to meet increasing freshwater demand.

3. Spatial Competition

• Spatial competition between and within ocean industries will intensify by 2050, especially in shallow waters.
• The demand for ocean space is projected to increase nine-fold by 2050, with offshore wind accounting for 82% of this demand.
• Shallow near-shore waters will face the most competition due to their suitability for fixed offshore wind and aquaculture.
• Collaborative approaches such as sector-coupling and shared infrastructure are necessary to manage spatial efficiency and reduce ecological impact.

4. Marine Ecosystems at Risk

• The ocean is under significant pressure from climate change, overfishing, eutrophication, invasive species, and marine littering.
• Integrated ocean management is essential to balance value creation with ecosystem protection.
• The UN Sustainable Development Goal 14: Life Below Water must gain more attention to ensure the health of marine ecosystems.

5. Shipping and Transportation

• Shipping will remain the primary mode of transport for 80% of global trade tonnage.
• The merchant fleet will see a shift in vessel types, with container ships surpassing tankers as the second-largest segment.
• Desalination and aquaculture will drive new employment and growth in the Blue Economy.
• Cruise industry will not be impacted long-term by COVID-19, with berth capacity tripling by 2050.

Key Information

Capital and Operating Expenditure (Capex and Opex)

• Capex in the Blue Economy is expected to decrease from USD 517 billion in 2018 to USD 461 billion in 2050.
• Cumulative capex over the period will be close to USD 20 trillion.
• Opex will grow from USD 668 billion in 2018 to USD 793 billion in 2050.
• Offshore wind will account for 10% of global opex by 2050, up from less than 1% in 2018.

Employment Growth

• Offshore wind employment will grow 250 times from 2018 levels.
• Marine aquaculture will employ 58% more people by 2050.

Regional Breakdown

• Greater China will be the largest user of marine space for human activity, followed by North America.
• The Indian Subcontinent will see a 50-fold increase in spatial demand, driven by growth in aquaculture and offshore wind.
• North America and Middle East and North Africa will see more than 30-fold increases in spatial demand.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Marine Spatial Planning (MSP) will play a critical role in managing competition for space.
• Sector-coupling and collaborative solutions are needed to optimize resource use and reduce environmental burden.
• Integrated management of ocean industries is crucial to ensure sustainable development and protect biodiversity.

Conclusion

• The Blue Economy is set for a major transformation, with offshore wind leading the shift towards sustainability.
• Asia will dominate the Blue Economy, with Greater China as the key player.
• Spatial competition will increase significantly, requiring careful planning and management to avoid ecological degradation.
• The ocean's role in global sustainability is vital, and its health must be prioritized in future development.