20250831-华泰期货-液化石油气周报_LPG运费上涨_关注市场边际变化_9页_1mb

LPG Market Summary for 2025-08-31

Core View

• LPG supply-demand balance remains broadly neutral with surplus; marginal improvements in shipping costs and chemical demand offer slight support, but cost pressures from crude oil limit upside potential.

Market Analysis

• Price Movement: LPG futures experienced oscillation with a minor monthly decline in the main contract (PG), driven by crude oil weakness and broader energy sector pressures.
• Cost Factors: Crude oil prices remained range-bound but bearish, while LPG shipping rates increased (Arabian Gulf to Far East: +$85/ton; US Gulf to Far East: +$13/ton), providing partial cost support.
• Supply: Global LPG supply ample; US production continues to grow, but China's imports decreased due to trade policies. Middle East showed slight supply increase, potentially influenced by OPEC adjustments.
• Demand: Burning demand subdued in summer; chemical demand marginally improved (e.g., PDH utilization rose due to profit recovery, but overall capacity excess persists).

Inventory

• Port inventories declined slightly (e.g.,华东 reduced to 113.45万吨), but remain elevated.

Strategy

• Market likely震荡; consider selective long positions in PG主力合约, but upside limited due to neutral fundamentals.

Key Risks

• Crude volatility, policy changes (e.g., tariffs), demand shifts, and logistical disruptions.