20250629-国泰期货-Industry_Weekly_PR,_PF_42页_3mb

GTJA Futures Energy & Chemical Industry Weekly: Analysis of PET Resin (PR) and Direct Spinning Polyester Staple Fiber (PF) markets.

PET Resin (PR) market: Leading factories are expected to implement production cuts in July, reducing output by approximately 660,000 tons. Downstream demand is strong, with operating rates around 94%, and processing fees have recovered to 1,000-1,100 yuan/ton, providing room for further expansion. Export-oriented manufacturers are benefiting from cost declines, with absolute and foreign price gaps narrowing, while domestic inventories are slightly accumulating. Supply and demand balance is tight in July and August, with potential destocking.

Direct spinning Polyester Staple Fiber (PF) market: Short-term prices show oscillation due to impact from shipping costs and factory maintenance. Production cuts are planned for major facilities, but demand remains weak, with downstream sectors maintaining moderate operating rates. Recommendation stands to go long on PR and short on PF as production optimism for PF is less than for PR. Inflows of raw materials inventory are moderate, and export volumes fluctuate, with focus on key regions like Southeast Asia and Central Asia. Butterfly spread assessments indicate short-term pressures, but profits may recover.

Key themes across both commodities include sequential demand and inventory trends, with analysis highlighting supply-driven moves and the economic outlook in respective downstream industries.