2024-11-10-世界银行-尼泊尔发展最新情况_尼泊尔的国际移民和福祉（英）_48页_12mb

Summary of Nepal Development Update (October 2024)

Recent Economic Developments

• Economic Growth: Nepal’s real GDP grew by 3.9% in FY24 (fiscal year ending July 2024), driven by strong tourist arrivals (30.7% surge), increased agricultural production (higher paddy output), and hydropower expansion (452.6 MW capacity addition). Services sector expansion led private consumption growth (1.1% YoY), while private investment slowed due to high interest rates and policy uncertainty.
• Inflation: Headline inflation declined to 5.4%, supported by lower import costs and India’s declining inflation (due to currency peg). Core inflation was influenced by surging remittances (a nine-year high of 25.3% of GDP).
• Current Account: The first surplus in eight years (3.9% of GDP) resulted from high remittances and reduced merchandise imports, boosted by tighter monetary policy and lower external price pressures.
• Public Debt: Sustainably managed due to a high share of concessional external debt. Fiscal deficit narrowed (2.6% of GDP in FY24), supported by reduced spending on allowances and fuel.
• Monetary Policy: The NRB cut the policy rate twice (to 5.5%) and aggressively absorbed liquidity, keeping real interest rates elevated amid remittance inflows.

Outlook and Risks

• Short-Term Growth: Accelerated to 5.1% in 2025 and 5.5% in 2026, driven by hydropower exports, services growth, and domestic demand recovery.
  • Risks: Persistently low capital expenditure, political discontinuity, regional trade disruptions, natural disasters, and vulnerabilities in the financial sector (e.g., rising non-performing loans).
  • External Risks: Deterioration in migration-receiving countries could shock remittance flows; regional instability may dampen tourism and demand.
• Medium-Term Fiscal: Gradual deficit reduction via lower recurrent spending and revenue-enhancing measures like a green tax. Capital spending execution lags, hindering infrastructure development.

Special Focus: International Migration and Well-being

• Migration Trends: Over 23% of households (7.5% of the population) had at least one international member in 2021. Youth (ages 15–34) dominate migration, driven by high domestic unemployment (25.3% for men, 25.8% for women in NLFS 2018).
• Economic Impact: Remittances (25.3% of GDP in 2024) reduced poverty, boosted consumption, and improved health and education investments. Most remittances fund daily consumption and loan repayals.
• Challenges:
  • High migration costs (average 1.14x Nepal’s GDP per capita), reliance on informal loans (27% interest rates), and limited destination diversity.
  • Contract fraud, unsafe working conditions (especially in Gulf countries), and low returns for skills acquired abroad persist.
  • Returnees face poor reintegration, with 75% employed in informal jobs; skills mismatch and geographic constraints limit utilization of capital.
• Policy Recommendations:
  • Reduce migration costs, improve information on destinations, strengthen pre-departure training, and formalize labor agreements.
  • Enhance worker protection abroad, promote skill recognition, and incentivize entrepreneurship/retraining for returnees.
  • Address structural weaknesses in the domestic economy to retain talent and reduce emigration.

Key Conclusions

Nepal’s economy shows resilience amid mixed fiscal and external challenges, with migration remaining a critical driver of household welfare and remittance inflows. While medium-term growth prospects are positive, risks related to migration stability, policy continuity, and financial sector health require attention to ensure inclusive and sustainable development.