深度-世界银行-塞拉利昂2021年经济最新情况：新冠疫情流行病对福利和贫困的影响（英文）-2021.6-59页_1mb

Sierra Leone 2021 Economic Update Summary

Core Content

The Sierra Leone 2021 Economic Update provides an in-depth analysis of the country's economic performance, policy responses, and the welfare and poverty effects of the COVID-19 pandemic. The report is structured into two main parts, covering recent developments, prospects, and policies in the first section and the welfare and poverty effects in the second.

Main Points and Key Information

Part 1: Recent Developments, Prospects, and Policies

Global and Regional Trends

• The global economy rebounded in 2021 with a projected growth rate of 6%, stronger than initially expected.
• Advanced economies (especially the US) and EMDEs (Emerging Markets and Developing Economies) are expected to grow faster than Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA), which is projected to grow at 3.4%.
• Growth in SSA is expected to moderate to 3.4% over 2023–2026, due to structural challenges such as aging populations and low productivity growth.

Recent Economic Developments in Sierra Leone

• Sierra Leone's economy is expected to rebound from the 2020 contraction with 3.0% real GDP growth in 2021, an upward revision of 0.8 percentage points from the 2020 Spring forecast.
• The recovery is driven by domestic demand, with private consumption and investment as key contributors.
• Agricultural production saw faster growth, which helped boost GDP, but TFP (Total Factor Productivity) remains a constraint on potential growth.

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics

• The fiscal balance improved by 1.2 percentage points to -4.2% of GDP in 2021, thanks to expenditure rationalization and higher tax collections.
• The primary balance is expected to be -8.8% of GDP, with a revenue-to-GDP ratio increasing from 21.4% to 22.3%.
• Public debt-to-GDP ratio is projected to decline slightly to 71.6%, but external debt remains high at 74.3% of total debt.
• Debt sustainability risks are still significant, particularly due to high borrowing costs and refinancing challenges.

External Sector and Exchange Rate Dynamics

• The current account deficit narrowed to 15.0% of GDP in 2021, driven by improved trade balances and increased official transfers.
• The Leone remained relatively stable against the US dollar, with a 4.4% depreciation in 2020 compared to 15.3% in 2019.
• The real effective exchange rate is overvalued by 20–30%, which could affect export competitiveness.

Monetary Policy and Financial Sector Developments

• The Bank of Sierra Leone (BSL) reduced its monetary policy rate (MPR) by 100 basis points in 2020 to 14.0%, supporting economic activity.
• Inflation declined to 10.5% (yoy) in 2020, the lowest since 2016, but food inflation remained high.
• Monetary aggregates (M3) expanded rapidly, driven by government borrowing and development partner support.
• The nonperforming loans (NPLs) ratio improved to 12.6% from 16.8% in 2019, due to government debt repayment and refinancing efforts.
• The capital adequacy ratio remained strong at 40.1%, well above the statutory minimum of 15.0%.

Evolution of the Pandemic in Sierra Leone

• As of May 2021, there were 4,000 confirmed cases and 79 fatalities.
• The government implemented containment measures early, including school closures, border restrictions, and curfews.

Medium-Term Outlook

• Economic growth is expected to rebound over the medium term, with an average of 3.6% from 2021–2023.
• Agriculture will contribute half of real sector growth, while mining and tourism will support the service sector.
• Inflation is expected to moderate further, and the fiscal deficit will decline to 2.4% of GDP by 2023.
• The current account deficit is expected to remain large at 13.6% of GDP, financed by foreign direct investment (FDI) and financial inflows.

Risks to the Outlook

• Domestic risks include high payment arrears, slow revenue growth, monetary inflationary pressures, and slow vaccine rollout.
• External risks involve pandemic resurgence, limited FDI and donor inflows, and weaker-than-expected exports.
• The new variants of the virus may prolong supply chain disruptions and hinder external demand recovery, especially in the services sector.

Policy Priorities

• Strengthen the vaccination program to protect vulnerable groups and support economic recovery.
• Implement broad-based macroeconomic reforms to ensure a quick and inclusive recovery.
• Gradually phase out fiscal stimulus and reinstating taxes with a clear timeline.
• Expand the tax base through modernization and automation.
• Deepen financial reforms to improve monetary policy and financial stability.
• Promote structural reforms to diversify the economy, including improving the business environment, digitalization, and agricultural productivity.

Part 2: Welfare and Poverty Effects of the Pandemic

Poverty and Inequality

• Poverty in Sierra Leone increased slightly from 56.8% in 2018 to 58.9% in 2020, reversing the previous trend of decline.
• The increase in poverty was largest in urban areas, particularly Freetown, where poverty rose from 17.7% to 29.1%.
• Rural areas saw little change in poverty levels, but over 70% of rural households remain poor.
• Inequality decreased due to a greater decline in consumption among the top third of the population.

Income and Employment

• Household incomes declined, especially for self-employed individuals and private sector workers.
• Public sector workers were more likely to see income increases.
• Employment remained largely stable, with most people continuing in the same activities and working the same number of hours.

Access to Basic Services

• Health service utilization decreased by 5–15% during the pandemic.
• Education was disrupted, with school closures and higher class repetition rates.
• Widespread fears about increased teenage pregnancies were not realized.

Food Insecurity

• Food security declined, especially in urban areas, where households could not rely on local production.
• Food price inflation was a major concern, with 86% of households reporting income declines in the early stages of the pandemic.
• Staple crops (rice, cassava, vegetables) performed better than cash crops (cocoa, coffee), which are exported.

Fiscal Response

• The government implemented tax relief measures, including suspension of taxes on essential goods and services.
• Fiscal consolidation is necessary but must be balanced with social spending to protect livelihoods and support recovery.

Conclusions

The economic recovery in Sierra Leone is moderate and driven by domestic demand, with agriculture and services as key contributors. However, the pandemic has set back poverty reduction efforts, especially in urban areas, and increased inequality. Fiscal and monetary policies have been adjusted to support recovery, but debt sustainability and inflationary pressures remain major challenges. Structural reforms and improved access to vaccines are critical for a sustainable and inclusive recovery.