2021-05-31-世界银行-塞拉利昂2021年经济最新情况_新冠疫情流行病对福利和贫困的影响（英文）_59页_1mb

Part 1: Recent Developments, Prospects, and Policies

Global and Regional Trends

• Global Recovery: Expected to grow by 6% in 2021, as fiscal support and vaccine rollout moderated COVID-related uncertainty.
• Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA): Projected to rebound by 3.4% in 2021, below the global average.
• Structural Issues: Aging populations in advanced economies and low capital/productivity growth in developing countries constrain long-term global growth.

Sierra Leone's Economic Situation

• Growth Forecast: Real GDP growth projected at 3.0% in 2021, driven by domestic demand, especially private consumption and investment.
• Output Loss: Large output gaps of -4.0% in 2020 and -1.7% in 2021, equivalent to Le 1.5 trillion (US$146.5 million) lost output.
• Poverty Increase: Poverty rates rose from 56.8% to 58.9% due to a combination of pandemic-related economic contraction and supply chain disruptions.

Fiscal Policy and Public Debt Dynamics

• Improved Fiscal Position: The primary balance deficit narrowed from -9.5% of GDP in 2020 to -8.8% in 2021, supported by higher revenue collection and expenditure rationalization.
• Debt Risk: Despite a projected decline in public debt-to-GDP ratio from 72.0% to 71.6%, Sierra Leone's reliance on external financing remains high at 71.5% of total debt. Debt sustainability remains fragile due to refinancing risks and external vulnerabilities.

Medium-Term Economic Outlook

• Growth: Projected to average 3.6% for 2021-2023, boosted by agricultural recovery and increased domestic/external demand.
• Employment: Public sector employment is stable, while self-employment and private sector jobs in urban areas saw significant declines.

Part 2: Welfare and Poverty Effects of COVID-19

Poverty Increase

• National Poverty Rate: Rose from 56.8% to 58.9% in 2020, reversing an earlier downward trend.
• Urban-Rural Disparities: Urban areas experienced a steeper increase (Freetown saw a rise of over 11 pp), while rural areas saw relatively little change.

Income and Employment Changes

• Income Sources: Self-employment and private sector jobs hardest hit, while public sector employment and subsistence agriculture provided more stable income.
• Employment: Job losses concentrated in contact-intensive sectors like trade and transportation. Most households maintained similar employment hours despite reduced income.

Access to Basic Services

• Education and Health: Minimal disruption in service access, though potential long-term impacts on children's education and preventative health services remain.
• Water & Sanitation: Service usage remained stable, with limited evidence of COVID impacting access to water or sanitation.

Food Insecurity

• Rural-Urban Divide: Urban households, especially those in Freetown, faced severe declines in food access due to high inflation and reduced incomes.
• Price Inflation: Food prices surged significantly in 2020 due to supply chain disruptions and border restrictions, exacerbating poverty.

Fiscal Response

• Supplementary Budget: Included health sector funding and public works programs, such as emergency cash transfers to support informal sector workers.

Conclusions and Policy Priorities

• Poverty Reversal: Urban self-employed experienced large increases in poverty, while upper-middle-income households saw significant declines in welfare.
• Priorities: Vaccination programs should be accelerated to inoculate 55% of the population by end-2023; fiscal space must be balanced with targeted social spending to support livelihoods; reforms to improve revenue mobilization and expenditure rationalization are critical.