亚开行-宏观经济最新情况：尼泊尔（2018年9月）（英文）-2018.9-38页-2mb

Macroeconomic Update: Nepal, Volume 6, No. 2, September 2018

Core Content Overview

This report provides a comprehensive analysis of Nepal's macroeconomic performance for the fiscal year 2018 and outlook for 2019, covering key sectors and fiscal dynamics. It also highlights challenges and opportunities in disaster risk reduction and the implications of the country's transition to fiscal federalism.

Main Points

Economic Growth (FY2018)

• Nepal's economy grew by 5.9% at basic prices in FY2018, down from 7.4% in FY2017.
• Agriculture growth slowed to 2.8% due to the impact of the 2017 floods, although production of other crops like maize, millet, and wheat supported growth.
• Industry expanded by 8.8%, driven by manufacturing, construction, and mining activities, though lower than the previous year's 12.4%.
• Services sector grew by 6.6%, with the hotel and restaurant, and transport, storage, and communication sub-sectors benefiting from increased tourism and political stability.

Economic Growth Outlook (FY2019)

• Economic growth is forecasted at 5.5%, slightly lower than FY2018 but significantly higher than the 10-year average of 4.3%.
• Growth will be supported by political stability, normal monsoon, and the acceleration of infrastructure projects.
• The monsoon season was normal in FY2018, with paddy plantation coverage exceeding 95% due to timely rainfall.
• The Upper Tamakoshi Hydropower Project (456 MW) is expected to be completed in FY2019, reducing Nepal's reliance on power imports from India.

Sectoral Contributions to Growth

• Industry is expected to grow by 7.2% in FY2019, buoyed by the end of load-shedding and the development of the Bhairahawa Special Economic Zone.
• Services sector is forecasted to grow by 6.1%, with continued momentum in wholesale and retail trade, financial intermediation, and travel and tourism.
• The agriculture sector is projected to grow by 3.5% in FY2019, assuming a good harvest and improved monsoon conditions.

Fiscal Sector

Expenditure Performance

• Capital expenditures increased by 28.0% in FY2018, with an execution rate of 79.7%, above the average of 72.0% from FY2013 to FY2017.
• However, project readiness, procurement delays, shortages of construction materials, and skilled labor hindered smooth implementation.
• Recurrent expenditures grew by 34.3% and were executed at 86.6%, reflecting increased government spending, particularly on election-related costs and fiscal transfers to sub-national governments.

Revenue Performance

• Government revenues exceeded the budget target by 0.2%, totaling NRs 731.4 billion or 24.3% of GDP.
• The main contributors to revenue were VAT (28.2%), income tax (21.8%), and customs duties (18.8%).
• The fiscal deficit narrowed to 6.7% of GDP from an original estimate of 11.2%, due to higher revenue and lower-than-expected expenditures.

Monetary and External Sector

Inflation

• Inflation moderated to 4.2% in FY2018, down from 4.5% in FY2017, largely due to subdued inflation in India.
• Inflation is expected to rise to 6.0% in FY2019, driven by increased government spending, higher oil prices, and a favorable harvest.

Trade and Balance of Payments

• Merchandise trade deficit widened to $10.9 billion, or 37.7% of GDP, due to increased imports of construction materials, vehicles, and petroleum products.
• FDI rose by 32.0% to $168.3 million in FY2018, though its share of GDP remains low at 0.6%.
• Despite a large trade deficit, balance of payments remained in surplus at $9.2 million, driven by robust financial inflows.
• Foreign exchange reserves stood at $10.1 billion, sufficient to cover 9.4 months of imports.

Issue Focus: Disaster Risk Reduction in Nepal

• Nepal is highly vulnerable to natural disasters due to its topography and diverse climate.
  • Mountainous regions face risks of landslides and soil erosion.
  • Himalayan regions are prone to avalanches and GLOFs.
  • Terai regions are vulnerable to floods, droughts, and fires.
• Unplanned human settlements have exacerbated these risks.
• The report emphasizes the importance of a multi-stakeholder approach, donor coordination, and combining soft assistance with hard investments for effective disaster risk management.

Key Challenges and Recommendations

• Fiscal federalism implementation faces challenges due to:
  • Limited legislative and administrative capacity at sub-national levels.
  • Inconsistencies in revenue mobilization at sub-national levels.
  • Need for capacity building in program and project development, grant utilization, and fiscal discipline.
• Investor confidence may be affected by:
  • Persistent issues in duty rebate processes.
  • Inefficiencies in the one-window policy for investment streamlining.
  • Poor infrastructure and implementation challenges.
• Tourism growth is expected to continue, but limited tourism infrastructure may prevent the full realization of the target set in the FY2019 budget.

Key Statistics

• GDP growth (FY2018): 5.9%
• Agriculture growth (FY2018): 2.8%
• Industry growth (FY2018): 8.8%
• Services growth (FY2018): 6.6%
• GDP growth (FY2019): 5.5%
• Fiscal deficit (FY2018): 6.7% of GDP
• Foreign exchange reserves (FY2018): $10.1 billion
• Trade deficit (FY2018): $10.9 billion
• FDI (FY2018): $168.3 million
• Government expenditures (FY2018): 32.0% of GDP
• Government revenues (FY2018): 24.3% of GDP

Conclusion

The report outlines a mixed economic performance in FY2018, with growth supported by improved monsoon conditions, political stability, and infrastructure development. While the outlook for FY2019 is cautiously optimistic, challenges remain in implementing fiscal federalism and maintaining sustainable growth. Disaster risk reduction is highlighted as a critical area for investment and coordination to ensure long-term resilience and development.