世界银行-中东和北非经济最新情况，2019年4月：改革和外部失衡（英文）-2019.4-58页_2mb

MENA Economic Update: Reforms and External Imbalances

Core Content

This report, Reforms and External Imbalances: The Labor-Productivity Connection in the Middle East and North Africa, published by the World Bank in April 2019, analyzes the economic challenges and growth prospects of the Middle East and North Africa (MENA) region, with a focus on the link between structural reforms and aggregate labor productivity in addressing external imbalances.

Main Views and Key Information

Overview: Low Growth and External Imbalances

• The World Bank expects the MENA region to grow at a modest rate of 1.5 to 3.5 percent between 2019 and 2021.
• Some countries are lagging, while a few are emerging as growth stars.
• The region's growth is closely tied to external factors, particularly export demand and oil prices.
• A key challenge is the low aggregate labor productivity, which is linked to the region's macroeconomic vulnerabilities.

Chapter 1: MENA's Growth Prospects

• 2019 Growth Forecast: The average real GDP growth for the region is expected to be 1.5 percent, down from 1.6 percent in 2018.
• Oil Exporters: Growth is expected to be 0.9 percent in 2019, with Iran's economy contracting due to U.S. sanctions.
• GCC Countries: Expected to grow at 2.1 percent in 2019, with growth rebounding from a 0.2 percent contraction in 2017.
• Developing Oil Importers: Projected to grow at 4.0 percent in 2019, with Egypt, Djibouti, and Iraq showing strong potential.
• External Risks: The main risk to growth is the slowdown in demand for MENA exports, especially from the U.S. and the EU.
• Long-term Outlook: Growth must come from within the region, as external factors explain less than 30 percent of average growth performance, with some oil economies reaching up to 60 percent.

Chapter 2: MENA's Current Account Balances and Aggregate Labor Productivity

• Current Account Deficits: Many MENA economies have unexplained current account deficits not driven by fundamentals.
• Fiscal Policy: Historically, fiscal policy was a key driver of current account balances, but this role has weakened.
• Savings Recirculation: The region's ability to recirculate savings across economies has declined since 2014.
• Twin Deficits: The correlation between fiscal and current account balances highlights the need for structural reforms.
• Productivity and Growth: Aggregate labor productivity is a critical factor in closing current account imbalances.
• Risk of Reversals: While short-term current account reversals are unlikely, long-term adjustments are necessary.
• Policy Recommendations: Structural reforms, particularly in fiscal, trade, and labor policies, are essential to raise productivity and reduce external imbalances.

Chapter 3: Structural Reforms in Search of Aggregate Labor Productivity

• Fiscal Reforms: Needed to reduce external deficits and boost productivity.
• Trade Reforms: Beyond tariffs, reforms should focus on improving competitiveness and integration into global value chains.
• Social Protection and Labor Market Reforms: These can enhance labor productivity and support inclusive growth.
• SOE Reforms in Network Industries: Particularly in the energy sector, reforms can improve efficiency and long-term growth.
• Digital Economy: The "Digital Moonshot" is a key initiative to drive structural reforms and improve productivity.
• Complementary Reforms: Additional structural reforms are required to complement the digital agenda and ensure sustainable growth.

Conclusion

• Structural reforms are essential for improving aggregate labor productivity and addressing external imbalances.
• The region's growth must be driven internally, as external factors are not sufficient to sustain long-term performance.
• The Digital Moonshot and other reforms are necessary to create a more resilient and productive economy in the MENA region.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1.1: Growth in MENA and the World (2014-2021)
• Figure 1.2: Spot and Forecasted Oil Prices (2014-2023)
• Table 1.1: Real GDP Growth, Current Account, and Fiscal Deficit Forecasts
• Table 1.2: Changes in Growth Forecasts
• Table A1: Summary Statistics
• Table A2: MNACE Model Estimates of the Fundamental Drivers of Current Account Balances

Appendices and Additional Notes

• Appendix: MNACE's Current Account Model: Provides insights into the drivers of current account balances in the region.
• Box 3.1: MIGA's support for private investment in Lebanon's electricity sector highlights the importance of policy support in improving productivity.