世界银行-为绿色转型做好劳动力准备_如何通过关注南非的技能发展来促进绿色转型_竞争力和就业能力（英）_26页_2mb

报告摘要

Summary of the Synthesis Note on "Preparing the Workforce for the Green Transition" in South Africa

Core Content

This Synthesis Note outlines strategies to support South Africa's green transition by enhancing skills development, with a focus on the Just Energy Transition (JET) and post-school education and training (PSET). It emphasizes the need for a workforce equipped with both technical and socioemotional skills to meet the challenges and opportunities of the low-carbon economy.

Main Points

Green Transition Overview: South Africa is committed to a Just Energy Transition, aiming to create a low-carbon, resilient economy and a just society. The green transition will result in both job creation and job loss, particularly in carbon-intensive industries like coal and petroleum.
Global Context: The global push for net-zero emissions by 2050 is driving changes in labor markets and skills demand. Countries are increasingly requiring low-carbon production processes to remain competitive and integrate into international value chains, especially with the EU's Carbon Border Adjustment Mechanism (CBAM) and its plans to ban new petrol and diesel cars from 2035.
Skills for the Green Transition: Three types of skills are identified as essential:
- Transversal skills: Literacy, numeracy, problem-solving, and socioemotional skills such as communication.
- Generic technical skills: Skills applicable across both green and non-green sectors, such as electrician skills.
- Green-specific skills: Skills unique to the green economy, such as solar panel installation.
Job Creation and Loss Estimates: The World Bank's Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) estimates that the green transition could create 1.6 million direct and indirect jobs in key industries by 2050, while also resulting in the loss of 0.6 million jobs. These estimates vary based on assumptions and methodologies.
Importance of STEM: There is a high demand for workers in STEM fields, including engineers, technicians, and artisans. These roles are critical for implementing green technologies and systems. However, women are underrepresented in these jobs, reflecting broader gender disparities in STEM education and professions.

Key Findings

Current PSET System: The PSET system in South Africa includes higher education, TVET, and adult training. While it already offers many skills relevant to the green economy, these programs often lack the specific green skills needed.
Challenges in PSET: The PSET system faces structural weaknesses, including low TVET enrollment, high university dropout rates, and a lack of alignment with emerging green skills. TVET institutions are slow to adapt to new technologies and changing skill demands.
Need for Coordination: There is a need for better coordination among stakeholders in the green transition and skills development to ensure that training programs are responsive and effective.

Recommendations

Expand and Adapt PSET Programs: Existing PSET programs should be expanded and adapted to include green-specific skills, especially in STEM fields.
Improve Data and Forecasting: More comprehensive and accurate data on green skill needs are required to inform training and education strategies.
Enhance Institutional Capacity: Strengthening the institutional capacity of the PSET system, particularly in TVET, is essential to support the green transition.
Support At-Risk Workers: Provide targeted support to workers who may lose their jobs due to the green transition, including reskilling and retraining programs.

Conclusion

The green transition in South Africa presents both opportunities and challenges for the labor market. A robust and responsive skills development system is crucial to ensuring that the workforce can adapt and thrive in the new economy. The World Bank plays a significant role in supporting these efforts through research, analysis, and recommendations aimed at improving workforce preparedness for the green transition.

Key Documents and References

World Bank Reports: The 2022 Country Climate and Development Report (CCDR) provides detailed forecasts and analyses of the impact of the green transition on labor and skills demand.
Sector Skills Plans (SSPs): These are being developed by Sector Education and Training Authorities (SETAs) and need to be more comprehensive in addressing green skill needs.
Recent Skill Needs Assessments: These include assessments for the hydrogen economy and the energy sector, which offer valuable insights but are limited in scope.

Figures and Data

Figure 1: Shows the net job creation and losses in key industries from 2022 to 2050.
Figure 2: Illustrates the existing higher education and TVET qualifications relevant to the green transition and highlights the need for further development and approval.