亚开行-2018年亚洲经济一体化报告（英文）-2018.10-213页-11mb

报告摘要

ASIAN ECONOMIC INTEGRATION REPORT 2018: TOWARD OPTIMAL PROVISION OF REGIONAL PUBLIC GOODS

Core Content

The Asian Economic Integration Report (AEIR) 2018 highlights the progress and challenges of regional integration in Asia and the Pacific, emphasizing the role of regional public goods (RPGs) in addressing transnational development issues. The report outlines the economic outlook, trade dynamics, foreign direct investment (FDI), financial integration, movement of people, and subregional cooperation initiatives, while also discussing the importance of RPGs in fostering sustainable development and regional stability.

Main Points

Regional Economic Outlook and Development Challenges

The Asia and Pacific region maintains a healthy economic growth outlook.
Excluding high-income economies, the region is projected to grow at 6.0% in 2018 and 5.8% in 2019.
Risks remain tilted to the downside due to international trade conflicts, elevated debt levels, and US monetary policy normalization.
Net capital flow volatility has decreased since 2016, but net debt investment volatility has increased, reflecting potential spillovers from US interest rate hikes.
Regional integration has been a significant driver of economic growth and poverty reduction.

Trade and the Global Value Chain (GVC)

Asia continues to lead in world trade recovery, with intraregional trade growing faster than global trade.
In 2017, Asia’s trade (by volume) grew 7.1%, surpassing its own economic growth for the first time since 2012.
Intraregional trade share rose to 57.8% in 2017, up from 57.2% in 2016, above the 55.9% average during 2010–2015.
The expansion of GVCs after a slowdown since 2012 has been a key factor in trade growth.
Escalating international trade conflicts, particularly between the US and China, could undermine the recovery of global and regional trade.
Trade policy uncertainty may dampen business and consumer confidence, affecting capital spending and investment decisions.

Foreign Direct Investment (FDI)

Despite a slowdown in inward FDI, intraregional FDI continues to rise.
In 2017, global FDI into Asia was $517.5 billion, with Asia’s share of global inward FDI increasing to 36.2% from 27.8% in 2016.
Intraregional FDI increased in both absolute value (to $260.0 billion) and share (to 50.2%).
Greenfield investments generated 667,000 jobs in 2017, primarily in India, China, Vietnam, the Philippines, and Singapore, across sectors like real estate, IT services, and electronics.
Japan, China, and Hong Kong, China were among the top 10 global investors, with Japan investing $160.4 billion in 2017, 30.6% of which went to Asia.
Outward FDI from Asia declined slightly to $487.9 billion in 2017 from $494.9 billion in 2016.
Emerging Asian investors increased their outward FDI, with India doubling its investments in sectors like electronic components and rubber, and Thailand increasing by over 50% in building and construction materials and chemicals.

Financial Integration

Inward portfolio investment (equity and debt) increased sharply in 2017 due to a surge in equity investment, but is expected to moderate in 2018 due to weak regional equity market performance.
International holdings of Asian portfolio equity assets rose by $1.3 trillion in 2017, exceeding the total increase of $954.0 billion over the past four years.
The US and EU were the main contributors to the increase, with intraregional share of equity investment falling to 15.1%.
Inward portfolio debt investment also increased by $390.4 billion, with Japanese debt securities being the largest component.
Outward portfolio investment and bank claims continue to grow, with outward debt investment reaching $4.2 trillion in 2017 from $3.9 trillion in 2016.
Asia's cross-border bank liabilities reached $4.6 trillion in 2017, up from $4.4 trillion in 2016, with intraregional share rising from 18.2% in 2012 to 22.6% in 2017.
Asian equity and bond markets have become more sensitive to global shocks due to uncertainty in global financial conditions.

Movement of People

International migration from Asia and the Pacific has grown, with 42.4 million migrants in 2017.
Intraregional migration dominates, with 78.0% of international tourism in the region being intraregional.
The report emphasizes the importance of human capital development and cross-border mobility in addressing demographic changes and social challenges.

Subregional Cooperation Initiatives

Central Asia is part of the Central Asia Regional Economic Cooperation (CAREC) program.
Southeast Asia is covered by the Greater Mekong Subregion (GMS) program.
East Asia includes initiatives under CAREC and GMS, as well as knowledge-sharing activities.
South Asia is addressed through the South Asia Subregional Economic Cooperation (SASEC).
The Pacific region focuses on disaster resilience and contingent financing.
These initiatives aim to improve the provision of regional public goods through cooperation, coordination, and shared efforts.

Toward Optimal Provision of Regional Public Goods

The report introduces a special chapter on regional public goods (RPGs) and their role in sustainable development.
RPGs such as cross-border infrastructure, shared natural resource management, and disease surveillance offer transnational benefits.
Collective action problems arise when individual nations act independently, making coordinated provision essential.
The report suggests that multilateral development banks, like the Asian Development Bank (ADB), can act as honest brokers to enhance mutual trust and facilitate regional cooperation.
Case studies from Asia, Europe, and Latin America demonstrate the effectiveness of regional cooperation and collective action in delivering RPGs.
Game-theoretic approaches, regulatory technology, and knowledge sharing are highlighted as key tools for RPG provision.
The chapter concludes with policy considerations for improving the provision of RPGs and enhancing regional cooperation.

Key Information

Regional integration is progressing, with trade and FDI leading, while financial integration lags.
Intraregional trade has grown to 57.8% in 2017, showing increased economic interdependence.
Inward FDI has increased in share and volume, while outward FDI has slightly declined.
Financial integration has seen increased regional participation, especially in bank claims.
Migration and tourism are largely intraregional, with Asia and the Pacific accounting for one in three international migrants.
Regional public goods require coordinated action to maximize their benefits and address transnational challenges.
Multilateral development banks like the ADB play a crucial role in facilitating regional cooperation and providing knowledge and finance for RPG provision.

Conclusion

The 2018 Asian Economic Integration Report underscores the importance of regional integration in driving economic growth and poverty reduction. It highlights the challenges and opportunities in trade, FDI, and financial integration, while emphasizing the need for coordinated regional efforts to effectively provide regional public goods. The report provides empirical evidence of the positive impact of regional integration and suggests policy directions for enhancing cooperation and delivering sustainable development outcomes.