2018年1月美中贸易公报（英文版）-1mb

2018 January Economics and Trade Bulletin Summary

Core Content

This document provides an overview of U.S.-China economic and trade relations in January 2018, focusing on bilateral trade figures, policy issues, economic trends in China, and sector-specific analysis of consumer goods exports.

Main Points

Bilateral Trade

• U.S. Goods Trade Deficit: In November 2017, the U.S. trade deficit with China reached $35.4 billion, the highest in two years and a 16.2% year-on-year increase.
• Export Growth: U.S. exports to China increased by 4.9% to $12.7 billion, while imports rose by 13% to $48.1 billion.
• Month-on-Month Fluctuations: U.S. exports fell 1.9% due to lower volumes of soybeans and crude oil, while imports declined slightly due to reduced demand for toys, games, and apparel.
• Cumulative Deficit: The U.S. goods trade deficit with China in the first 11 months of 2017 was $344.4 billion, up 7.9% from 2016.

Bilateral Policy Issues

• National Security Strategy: President Trump's 2017 National Security Strategy highlighted concerns about China's economic coercion, influence operations, and unfair trade practices.
• Economic Threats: The strategy identified intellectual property theft, foreign investment for political gain, and the use of influence operations as major threats.
• CFIUS Strengthening: The U.S. government pledged to strengthen the Committee on Foreign Investment in the United States (CFIUS) to address national security risks.
• Global Excess Capacity: The U.S., EU, and Japan criticized China's state support for industries like steel, aluminum, and solar, which led to global overcapacity and unfair competition.
• Steel Capacity: China accounted for about 75% of global steel capacity expansion from 2000 to 2014, contributing to severe global overcapacity.
• U.S. Trade Actions: The U.S. Department of Commerce initiated an antidumping and countervailing duty case against Chinese aluminum sheets, marking the first self-initiated trade case in over 25 years.

Policy Trends in China's Economy

• Central Economic Work Conference: The conference emphasized financial risk containment and supply-side structural reform, but reduced focus on deleveraging.
• Financial Stability: The IMF highlighted three key concerns: credit expansion, regulatory complexity, and implicit government guarantees.
• Deleveraging: While local government borrowing was addressed, corporate and household debt levels remained high, with total debt-to-GDP expected to reach 327% by 2022.
• Regulatory Measures: The Chinese government strengthened financial regulations, particularly in shadow banking and internet finance, and emphasized quality over speed of growth.
• IMF Recommendations: The IMF recommended reducing local government intervention, increasing bank capital, and improving transparency and risk assessment in the financial sector.

Sector Focus: Consumer Goods

• Growth in Exports: U.S. consumer goods exports to China have grown steadily since 2003, with a 90% increase from 2010 to 2016.
• Market Share: In 2016, consumer goods accounted for 6% of U.S. total goods exports to China.
• Tariff Cuts: On December 1, 2017, China reduced tariffs on several U.S. consumer goods, potentially boosting U.S. sales.
• Top Export Categories: In 2016, the largest categories of U.S. consumer goods exports to China were cell phones (35%), pharmaceutical preparations (31%), and toiletries and cosmetics (5%).

Key Information

U.S. Consumer Goods Exports

• Cell Phones and Household Goods: These accounted for 64% of U.S. consumer goods exports to China in 2016, with a 161% increase from 2011 to 2016.
• Pharmaceuticals: Exports of pharmaceutical preparations to China grew by 438% from 2007 to 2016, reaching $2.2 billion.
• Market Trends: China's growing middle class and increased income levels are expected to drive continued demand for U.S. consumer goods.

Economic Outlook

• Growth Forecasts: U.S. economists raised growth forecasts for 2017 to 6.8%, above the government's target of around 6.5%.
• China's Growth Goals: China aims for a 6.3% real GDP growth rate in 2018 to meet its 2020 GDP doubling target.
• Debt Levels: China's debt-to-GDP ratio increased slightly from 255.1% in Q4 2016 to 255.9% in Q2 2017, with state-owned enterprises continuing to borrow heavily.

Conclusion

The document outlines the growing trade deficit between the U.S. and China, the U.S. government's strategic response to China's economic influence, and the ongoing challenges in China's financial system. It also highlights the importance of consumer goods exports to China, particularly in the sectors of cell phones, pharmaceuticals, and cosmetics, and notes the potential impact of recent tariff reductions on U.S. sales.