2018年5月美中贸易公报（英文版）

U.S.-China Economic and Security Review Commission: Economics and Trade Bulletin - May 4, 2018

Core Content Summary

This document provides a detailed overview of the U.S.-China trade and economic relationship as of May 4, 2018, highlighting key trade figures, policy developments, and economic trends in both countries.

Bilateral Trade

• U.S. Goods Trade Deficit: In Q1 2018, the U.S. goods trade deficit with China increased by 15.5% year-on-year, driven mainly by a 13.6% rise in imports. U.S. exports to China grew by 8.6%, but at a slower pace than imports.
• Services Trade: The U.S. services surplus with China reached a record high of $38.5 billion in 2017, but exports grew at the lowest rate in over 13 years (3.5%). Imports of services, particularly transport, travel, and other business services, increased significantly.
• Key Export Products: In Q1 2018, U.S. exports to China included significant volumes of transportation equipment, computer and electronic products, and chemicals. Imports from China were dominated by computer and electronic products, machinery, and miscellaneous manufactured commodities.
• Oil and Gas Exports: U.S. oil and gas exports to China saw an 88% year-on-year increase in Q1 2018, largely due to a long-term LNG contract signed by Cheniere Energy. Oil and gas now account for about 8% of U.S. total imports to China.
• Advanced Technology Products (ATP): The U.S. trade deficit in ATP reached $33.4 billion in Q1 2018, up 19.4% from the previous year. Information and communications technologies (ICT) were the largest contributor to this deficit.

Bilateral Policy Issues

• ZTE Ban: The U.S. Department of Commerce banned ZTE from exporting U.S. technology for seven years due to repeated violations of U.S. export laws and a cover-up of evidence. This ban affects 10–15% of ZTE's bill of materials.
• ZTE's Response: ZTE claimed the ban would cause significant harm to its operations and employees. China's Ministry of Commerce expressed readiness to take measures to protect its enterprises.
• ZTE's Domestic Technology Push: The Chinese government intensified efforts to replace foreign technology with domestic equivalents, emphasizing the need for self-reliance in core technologies like semiconductors.
• WTO Consultations: The U.S. initiated WTO consultations on China's licensing regulations (DS542), and China responded with retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, including sorghum, pork, and fruit.
• U.S. Trade Actions: The U.S. imposed Section 232 tariffs on steel and aluminum, prompting China and other countries to request consultations at the WTO. The EU and Japan joined the U.S. in challenging China's licensing practices.
• Huawei Investigation: The U.S. Department of Justice is investigating Huawei for potential illegal exports to Iran, similar to the ZTE case.

Quarterly Review of China's Economy

• GDP Growth: China's GDP grew 6.8% year-on-year in Q1 2018, exceeding the government's target of around 6.5%. This growth was driven by strong consumer demand and real estate investment.
• Economic Drivers: Consumer demand and real estate investment were the main contributors to economic growth. Retail sales in March 2018 increased by 10.1%, while housing investment grew by 10.4% year-on-year.
• Slowing Industrial Output: Chinese manufacturing and industrial output slowed in Q1 2018. The manufacturing PMI fell to 51, the lowest in four months, and the services PMI dropped to 52.3, the lowest since February 2017.
• Fixed-Asset Investment (FAI): FAI grew 7.5% year-on-year in Q1 2018, down from 7.9% in the first two months of the year. While government investment remained strong, private investment surpassed state investment for the first time since 2015.

Policy Trends in China's Economy

• Made in China 2025: China is accelerating its push for self-reliance in technology, with the government launching a new $19 billion state-backed fund to support the domestic semiconductor industry.
• Boao Forum Remarks: President Xi Jinping emphasized the importance of core technology as a national priority, calling for stronger state support for domestic tech companies.
• Alibaba's Stance: Jack Ma of Alibaba reiterated the need for countries to develop their own technology, citing the U.S. control over the chip market.
• Retaliatory Tariffs: China imposed retaliatory tariffs on U.S. agricultural products, affecting 82% of all U.S. agricultural exports to China. These tariffs include a 178.6% deposit on U.S. sorghum and 25% tariffs on pork, fruit, wine, and other products.

Key Statistics

Conclusion

The U.S.-China trade relationship in early 2018 was marked by a growing goods trade deficit, increased pressure on Chinese technology firms like ZTE, and retaliatory measures by China against U.S. trade actions. Meanwhile, China's economy showed robust growth, but signs of a slowdown in key sectors such as manufacturing and services emerged. The Chinese government's push for self-reliance in technology and its response to U.S. trade policies were central themes, reflecting broader strategic and economic shifts in the bilateral relationship.