国际可持续发展研究所-消除饥饿的可持续解决办法（英）-2021_180页_8mb

Summary of "Sustainable Solutions to End Hunger"

Core Content

The document presents a comprehensive analysis of global hunger and outlines sustainable solutions to address it, focusing on small-scale food producers and the role of science in shaping policy. It is a result of the Ceres2030 research project, a collaboration between Cornell University, the International Institute for Sustainable Development (IISD), and the International Food Policy Research Institute (IFPRI), supported by the Bill & Melinda Gates Foundation and the German Federal Ministry for Economic Cooperation and Development (BMZ). The project uses advanced economic modeling and machine learning to synthesize evidence on effective agricultural interventions and their associated costs.

Main Findings

• Hunger is rising: An estimated 690 million people are currently hungry, with an additional 95 million projected to be affected by the pandemic. The number is expected to increase to 840 million by 2030.
• Small-scale producers are disproportionately affected: These producers are among the most vulnerable to hunger, despite being essential to global food security. They are often excluded from economic growth, technological change, and political decision-making.
• Agricultural research is misaligned: Most agricultural research publications do not address the needs of smallholder farmers. Over 95% of studies reviewed were not relevant to smallholders, and less than 2% included original data from them.
• Climate change is a major threat: The climate crisis is undermining food production and distribution, with droughts and heat reducing yields and water becoming a scarce resource.
• Effective interventions: The research identifies ten key interventions that can help end hunger and improve food systems, including support for farmers' organizations, extension services, climate-resilient crops, and infrastructure development.

Key Recommendations

Economic Model and Funding Needs

• The economic model used in the Ceres2030 project is one of the most complex ever attempted, incorporating hundreds of thousands of equations to simulate the interactions between different levels of the economy.
• The model predicts that USD 14 billion per year in donor contributions and USD 19 billion per year in public spending from low- and middle-income countries will be needed by 2030 to end hunger and double the incomes of small-scale producers.
• This investment will also help keep greenhouse gas emissions in line with the Paris Agreement commitments.
• The additional public spending is expected to trigger USD 52 billion in private investment annually.

Challenges and Opportunities

• Research priorities: Agricultural research funding has increasingly shifted to the private sector, leading to a lack of focus on smallholder needs.
• Institutional support: Researchers often lack incentives to engage with smallholder issues, as these do not immediately advance academic careers.
• Data gaps: Most studies do not involve smallholder farmers, limiting the practical relevance of findings.
• Integrated approaches: The project emphasizes the need for integrated interventions that address multiple objectives, such as improving both environmental outcomes and economic conditions.
• Policy change: Governments must rethink their approach to agricultural development, combining investment in food systems with social protection, education, and infrastructure.

Conclusion

• A world without hunger is possible, but it requires a fundamental shift in how research and policy are approached.
• The Ceres2030 project highlights the importance of evidence-based decision-making and the need for a more inclusive, sustainable, and equitable food system.
• The recommendations emphasize the role of collaboration between governments, the private sector, and scientists in creating transformative change by 2030.