国际可持续发展研究所-根据世界贸易组织农场补贴规则采购粮食储备（英）-2021.8-38页_581kb

Summary of "Procuring Food Stocks Under World Trade Organization Farm Subsidy Rules: Finding a permanent solution"

Core Content

This report addresses the issue of public stockholding programs (PSH) under the World Trade Organization (WTO) Agreement on Agriculture, focusing on how these programs affect trade-distorting support and the ongoing negotiations to find a permanent solution.

Main Issues

• Public Stockholding Programs (PSH): Many developing countries use PSH to ensure food security, which involves government procurement of food at administered prices.
• WTO Rules: Under the Agreement on Agriculture, government procurement at fixed prices is counted toward a country's aggregate measurement of support (AMS) commitment, while procurement at market prices is not.
• Concerns: Developing countries worry that their PSH programs may exceed trade-distorting support limits, thus limiting their policy space for food security.
• Interim Solution: The 2013 Bali Decision provided temporary exemption from legal challenges for PSH programs under certain conditions, including compliance with notification and transparency requirements.

Key Negotiating Proposals

The following are the main proposals from various WTO members and negotiating groups to address the PSH issue:

1. Exempting PSH from AMS Calculation

• G33 Proposal: Exclude food bought at administered prices under PSH from AMS calculations.
• Other Members: Some suggest that if the procured stocks do not exceed a certain percentage of the average value of production, they should be exempted.

2. Revisiting External Reference Price

• G33 Proposal: Use a three-year average based on the preceding five years or last year’s average producer/farm-gate price.
• Other Members: Propose using a fixed external reference price based on 1986–1988 or a three-year average, excluding the highest and lowest entries.

3. Adjusting for Inflation

• G33 Proposal: Define an excessive rate of inflation and adjust administered prices accordingly.
• Other Members: Suggest that inflation adjustments should be considered in the calculation of market price support.

4. Exempting LDCs and Small Economies

• G33 Proposal: Advocate for full exemption of least developed countries (LDCs) from AMS and de minimis limits.
• Other Members: Some propose partial exemptions based on the percentage of the average value of production.

5. Permanent Solution Based on Bali Decision

• G33 Proposal: Maintain the peace clause from the Bali Decision, with modifications to notification and transparency requirements.
• Other Members: Some support adopting the Bali outcome as a permanent solution, while others suggest further modifications.

Policy Context

Market Trends

• Price Stability: Prices were relatively flat from 1995 to 2005, but spiked between 2005 and 2011 due to factors like biofuel demand, population growth, and energy prices.
• Post-2011 Prices: Prices have remained 50% above pre-2005 levels, even after falling from record highs.
• Future Projections: Prices are expected to rise slightly in nominal terms but fall in real terms over the next decade due to increased supply and stable demand.

Public Stockholding Programs

• WTO Membership: Many WTO members have implemented PSH programs, especially for staple crops like rice and wheat.
• Performance Measures: These programs are evaluated based on their impact on food security and trade distortions.
• Regional Reserves: Some countries maintain regional food reserves to ensure food security during emergencies.

Options for a Permanent Solution

The report outlines five main options for a permanent solution:

1. Updating Base Periods: Change the base period used for calculating AMS to reflect more recent price trends.
2. Revisiting Eligible Production: Clarify or redefine what constitutes eligible production for AMS calculations.
3. Exempting Support at Lower Administered Prices: Allow exemption when administered prices are below international prices.
4. Exempting LDCs and Small Economies: Provide full or partial exemptions for LDCs and other small economies.
5. Bali-Based Permanent Solution: Use the Bali Decision as a foundation for a permanent solution, with technical adjustments and enhanced transparency.

Advantages and Disadvantages

• Advantages:

  • Exemptions for PSH would provide developing countries with more policy space.
  • Improved transparency and notification requirements can enhance accountability.
  • Updating methodologies may better reflect current market realities.

• Disadvantages:

  • Exemptions could lead to increased trade distortions.
  • Transparency requirements may be burdensome for developing countries.
  • There is a risk of abuse if safeguards and anti-circumvention provisions are not robust.

Conclusion

The report concludes that the Bali Decision can serve as a constructive basis for a permanent solution, with necessary technical adjustments. These include revisiting eligible production definitions, updating external reference price methodologies, and ensuring that transparency and safeguard provisions are maintained. The goal is to balance the need for food security with the rules of the WTO to prevent trade distortions.

Key Information

• G33 Group: Has been the most active in proposing changes to PSH rules.
• Bali Decision: Provided an interim exemption from legal challenges for PSH programs, with conditions.
• AMS Calculation: Fixed-price procurement under PSH is included in AMS, while market-price procurement is not.
• De Minimis Limits: Most developing countries have a de minimis limit of 10% of the value of production.
• Future Outlook: Prices are expected to remain above pre-2005 levels but may decline in real terms due to increased supply and stable demand.

Recommendations

• Maintain the peace clause from the Bali Decision.
• Introduce technical fixes to the methodology for calculating AMS and external reference prices.
• Broaden coverage to include more foodstuffs and programs.
• Ensure anti-circumvention and safeguard provisions are strengthened.
• Provide transparency and notification requirements with appropriate technical assistance and capacity building for developing countries.