2017年Q1全球经济状况调研报告（英文版）_26页_480kb

报告摘要

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q1, 2017 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants worldwide, with 1,334 responses in Q1 2017. The survey is a trusted barometer for global economic conditions, with its main indices serving as good predictors of GDP growth and showing strong correlation with the VIX index, which measures stock price volatility.

Main Indices and Trends

Global economic confidence rebounded in Q1 2017, reaching its highest level since Q2 2015.
The improvement was widespread, with gains observed in North America, Western Europe, Asia Pacific, and Central and Eastern Europe.
US economic policies (fiscal reform, infrastructure investment, and deregulation) were a key driver of this confidence.
Increased costs were the main concern for companies, cited by 46% of respondents, aligning with rising inflation globally.
Exchange-rate volatility was the second-largest concern (35%), particularly affecting US and European firms.
Capital expenditure and hiring intentions increased in Q1, showing a more optimistic outlook for business investment and employment.

Key Themes

1. Global Trade Growth

There were clear signs of a pick-up in global trade growth since 2013.
Global trade volume grew by 3.4% year-on-year in the three months to January 2017, the fastest rate in nearly two years.
South Korea and Taiwan saw fastest export growth since 2012, indicating strong global demand.
The IMF expects global GDP growth of 3.4% in 2017, the fastest since 2012.

2. Monetary Policy and Interest Rates

The US Federal Reserve raised interest rates in March, setting the key rate at 0.75–1.0%.
Rate hikes are expected to continue, with three more in 2017 and four in 2018.
Other developed economies (Japan, Europe, UK) are likely to keep interest rates low for the foreseeable future.
This divergence in monetary policy could lead to a stronger US dollar in the coming months, which may reduce the competitiveness of US-based firms.

3. Emerging Markets

Emerging markets showed improved economic performance over the past year.
China led the recovery, with fiscal and monetary easing contributing to a rebound in growth.
Russia and Brazil are slowly recovering from recessions, aided by rising commodity prices and falling inflation.
India is rebounding from last year's slowdown, with demonetisation measures now having less impact.
Pakistan also saw improved confidence, driven by IMF support and infrastructure investment from China.

4. Regional Analysis

North America

Confidence improved slightly, with 37% optimistic vs. 24% pessimistic.
US remains the most confident region, with rising costs (43%) and exchange-rate volatility (22%) as key concerns.
Capital spending and employment increased in Q1, reflecting positive investment and hiring trends.

Western Europe

Confidence rebounded to its highest level since Q4 2015.
Export demand and private consumption were the main drivers of the improvement.
Inflation rose to 2% year-on-year, up from 1.8% in the previous month.
Exchange-rate volatility was a major concern (50% of respondents).

Central and Eastern Europe (CEE)

Confidence rebounded strongly in Q1, linked to the Eurozone's performance.
Russia, the largest economy in CEE, showed flat confidence but remains high by recent standards.
Capital spending and employment were still in negative territory, indicating ongoing challenges.

Asia Pacific

Confidence reached its highest level since Q4 2011.
Hong Kong, Singapore, and Taiwan showed strongest growth in trade-dependent economies.
Increased costs were the main concern (55% of respondents), followed by decreased incomes (46%) and exchange-rate volatility (41%).

The UK

Confidence rebounded to its highest level since Q2 2015.
The fall in the pound post-Brexit boosted export competitiveness.
Government spending declined, reflecting ongoing fiscal austerity.

Ireland

Confidence improved slightly, but remains weak by historical standards.
Brexit uncertainty continues to be a major factor in economic outlook.
Employment and capital spending showed some improvement, but government spending fell.

Key Concerns Across Regions

Increased costs were the primary concern in most regions, with 46% of respondents citing it.
Exchange-rate volatility was a major issue, especially for US and European firms.
Protectionism and political uncertainty (e.g., in the US, France, and Germany) pose long-term risks to global trade and economic growth.

Outlook

Short-term outlook is positive, with accelerating growth and improved confidence.
Medium-term risks are increasing, particularly due to inflationary pressures, exchange-rate fluctuations, and potential policy shifts.
Global trade growth is expected to continue unless the US adopts a highly protectionist agenda.
Emerging markets are performing well, but sustainability of growth is uncertain due to demographic challenges, sanctions, and lack of reform in some countries.

Conclusion

The Q1 2017 GECS indicates a global economic rebound, with confidence at its highest since 2015. While US-led fiscal policies and rising global demand have driven this recovery, inflation, exchange-rate volatility, and political uncertainty remain key challenges. The divergence in monetary policy across major economies may lead to currency fluctuations, which could affect export competitiveness. Emerging markets are showing signs of improvement, but long-term sustainability is dependent on structural reforms and continued global demand.