2019年Q1全球经济状况调研（英文版）_18页_1mb

Global Economic Conditions Survey Report: Q1, 2019 Summary

Core Content

The Global Economic Conditions Survey (GECS), conducted by ACCA and IMA, is the largest regular economic survey of accountants globally. It tracks key economic indicators and provides insights into the performance of companies worldwide, serving as a trusted barometer for the global economy. The Q1 2019 survey collected 1335 responses, including 107 CFOs, and highlighted a modest recovery in global confidence after a record low in the previous quarter, though confidence remains below its long-term average.

Main Indices and Trends

• Global Confidence Index:

  • Increased in Q1 2019 compared to Q4 2018, indicating a slight rebound.
  • Still at a low level, consistent with a slowing global economy.
  • The confidence index correlates with the VIX, a measure of stock market volatility.

• Global Orders Index:

  • Virtually unchanged in Q1.
  • Less volatile than confidence, suggesting more stability in economic activity.
  • Indicates slower global growth, but not a major collapse.

• Regional Performance:

  • United States: Confidence rebounded, but new orders fell further, pointing to a weak first half of 2019. Growth is expected to be around 2% to 2.5%, down from 2.9% in 2018.
  • Western Europe: Confidence improved, but remains below long-term averages. The euro area faced a sharp slowdown in 2018, with Germany stagnating and Italy in technical recession.
  • United Kingdom: Confidence rose modestly in Q1, but remains below long-run average. Brexit uncertainty continues to be the biggest negative influence on the UK economy, with growth expected to be around 1%.
  • Middle East: Confidence rebounded significantly due to a strong recovery in oil prices. Brent crude rose by nearly 30% to $66.8 per barrel.
  • Africa: Confidence was virtually unchanged, but investment opportunities showed a strong upward trend. Growth is expected to be around 3.5%.
  • South Asia: Confidence improved, but remains below Q3 2018 levels. Capital expenditure and new orders indices both declined slightly, with geopolitical risks influencing the outlook.

Key Concerns and Observations

• Rising Operating Costs: Concerns about this issue decreased from 55% in Q2 2018 to 48% in Q1 2019, reflecting a softening of economic growth.
• Supplier Risk: Only 12% of respondents expressed concern about suppliers going out of business, unchanged from Q4 2018.
• Employment and Investment Intentions: Both remain relatively weak, with no significant change from the previous quarter.
• Emerging Markets (EMs): The relative position of EMs has improved due to the pause in US monetary tightening and a weaker US dollar, which reduces inflationary pressures and debt-servicing costs. However, weaker developed economy growth may reduce demand for EM exports.

Thematic Analysis: China

• Economic Growth: China's GDP growth slowed to 6.6% in 2018, its weakest since 1990. Growth is expected to remain moderate in 2019, around 6% to 6.5%, driven by household consumption rather than investment or exports.
• Debt Concerns: Total Chinese debt has risen to 115% of GDP, with the corporate sector (including SOEs) being the main contributor. SOEs account for 72% of GDP in debt, with many being "zombie" firms that are not viable and rely on government support.
• Demographics: A declining working-age population is a major challenge. The fertility rate has dropped to 1.6, below that of the US and UK. By 2050, the dependency ratio is expected to rise to 70%, significantly reducing the number of workers per non-worker.
• Policy Response: The Chinese government is focusing on fiscal stimulus, such as tax cuts, rather than monetary easing. The shift toward a consumption-driven and service-oriented economy is expected to lead to a lower trend rate of GDP growth.

Conclusion

The GECS report indicates a global slowdown in economic growth, with confidence indices showing a modest rebound. While the US, UK, and euro-zone economies are experiencing slower growth, emerging markets are benefiting from reduced US monetary tightening. China faces long-term structural challenges, including high debt levels and demographic shifts, which are expected to limit its growth potential. The outlook for the global economy remains cautious, with risks skewed to the downside but some positive developments emerging in certain regions.