iQiyi (IQ US) 4Q25E Preview Summary
Core Content
iQiyi is expected to recover both revenue and earnings in the fourth quarter of 2025 (4Q25E). The forecasted total revenue for 4Q25E is RMB6.77bn, representing a 2% YoY increase and a 1% QoQ increase, driven by the recovery of membership and content distribution businesses. The company is also expected to record a non-GAAP net income of RMB93mn in 4Q25E, up from a non-GAAP net loss of RMB59/148mn in 4Q24/3Q25, attributed to operating leverage and improved efficiency.
Key Financial Forecasts
Revenue
- 4Q25E: RMB6.77bn (+2% YoY, +1% QoQ)
- FY25E: RMB27.263bn
- FY26E: RMB27.938bn
- FY27E: RMB28.404bn
Non-GAAP Net Profit
- 4Q25E: RMB93mn
- FY25E: RMB0.3bn
- FY26E: RMB1.0bn
- FY27E: RMB1.3bn
Non-GAAP EPS
- 4Q25E: RMB0.3
- FY25E: RMB0.27
- FY26E: RMB1.07
- FY27E: RMB1.30
Gross Margin
- 4Q25E: 20.2%
- FY25E: 20.9%
- FY26E: 23.3%
- FY27E: 24.2%
Operating Margin
- 4Q25E: 0.7%
- FY25E: 0.7%
- FY26E: 4.2%
- FY27E: 5.1%
Non-GAAP Net Margin
- 4Q25E: 1.0%
- FY25E: 1.0%
- FY26E: 3.7%
- FY27E: 4.4%
Business Highlights
- Membership Revenue: After declining YoY for seven consecutive quarters since 1Q24, membership revenue is expected to be largely flat YoY at RMB4.1bn, supported by the performance of popular TV series.
- Online Advertising Revenue: Expected to decline by 6% YoY but increase by 8% QoQ to RMB1.34bn, driven by ad budget growth during e-commerce shopping festivals and popular variety shows.
- Content Distribution Revenue: Projected to increase by 90% YoY and 20% QoQ to RMB2.34bn, due to increased revenue contribution from content distribution to TV and other channels.
Innovative Businesses
- Overseas Business: Total video views of iQiyi's overseas app grew by 114.5% YoY in 2025, attributed to the strong performance of domestically-produced TV series and movies.
- Micro Drama: The company has over 20,000 micro drama titles, with more than half available for free. Plans to expand its content library and improve content quality.
- IP Derivatives: iQiyi plans to open its first iQiyi Land in Yangzhou on Feb 8, bringing its IPs offline.
Valuation and Target Price
- Target Price: US$2.75 per ADS, based on 18x 2026E non-GAAP EPS.
- Previous Target Price: US$2.65
- Current Price: US$2.01
- Up/Downside: 36.8%
Stock Performance
- 1-month: +5.8% (Absolute), +8.0% (Relative)
- 3-month: -7.4% (Absolute), -8.2% (Relative)
- 6-month: +1.0% (Absolute), -8.1% (Relative)
Shareholding Structure
Market Capitalization and Liquidity
- Market Cap: US$1,936.4m
- Avg 3-months Turnover: US$21.1m
- 52-week High/Low: US$2.79/US$1.53
- Total Issued Shares: 963.4m
Analyst Ratings
- BUY: Stock with potential return of over 15% over next 12 months.
- HOLD: Stock with potential return of +15% to -10% over next 12 months.
- SELL: Stock with potential loss of over 10% over next 12 months.
- NOT RATED: Stock is not rated by CMBIGM.
- OUTPERFORM: Industry expected to outperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
- MARKET-PERFORM: Industry expected to perform in-line with the relevant broad market benchmark.
- UNDERPERFORM: Industry expected to underperform the relevant broad market benchmark.
Financial Summary
Income Statement (RMB mn)
| Metric |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| Revenue |
28,998 |
32,018 |
29,225 |
27,263 |
27,938 |
28,404 |
| Gross Profit |
6,678 |
8,916 |
7,272 |
5,697 |
6,513 |
6,880 |
| Operating Profit |
1,312 |
3,135 |
1,811 |
190 |
1,163 |
1,441 |
| Adjusted Net Profit |
1,284 |
2,984 |
1,512 |
264 |
1,031 |
1,255 |
Balance Sheet (RMB mn)
| Metric |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| Total Assets |
46,048 |
44,594 |
45,761 |
48,334 |
49,383 |
50,756 |
| Total Liabilities |
39,705 |
32,409 |
32,387 |
31,121 |
31,146 |
31,270 |
| Total Shareholders Equity |
6,251 |
12,087 |
13,365 |
17,204 |
18,229 |
19,478 |
Cash Flow (RMB mn)
| Metric |
2022A |
2023A |
2024A |
2025E |
2026E |
2027E |
| Net Cash from Operations |
-71 |
3,497 |
2,110 |
4,048 |
5,308 |
5,356 |
| Net Cash from Investing |
266 |
-1,740 |
-2,445 |
-4,320 |
-4,268 |
-4,275 |
| Net Cash from Financing |
4,469 |
-4,285 |
-1,370 |
4 |
0 |
0 |
Valuation Table
| Metric |
CMBIGM Estimate |
Consensus |
Diff (%) |
| Revenue (RMB bn) |
27.3 |
27.3 |
0.0% |
| Gross Profit (RMB bn) |
5.7 |
5.7 |
-0.7% |
| Operating Profit (RMB bn) |
0.2 |
0.1 |
53.9% |
| Non-GAAP Net Profit (RMB bn) |
0.3 |
0.1 |
189.8% |
| Non-GAAP EPS (RMB) |
0.3 |
0.1 |
275.9% |
| Gross Margin (%) |
20.9 |
21.0 |
-0.1 ppt |
| Operating Margin (%) |
0.7 |
0.5 |
0.2 ppt |
| Non-GAAP Net Margin (%) |
1.0 |
0.3 |
0.6 ppt |
Global Streaming Platform Valuation
| Company |
Ticker |
Price (LC) |
PE 2025E |
PE 2026E |
PS 2025E |
PS 2026E |
EPS CAGR 24-26E |
| Netflix Inc |
NFLX US |
87.3 |
34.2 |
27.2 |
8.8 |
7.8 |
38% |
| Disney |
DIS US |
110.3 |
18.8 |
16.7 |
2.1 |
2.0 |
22% |
| Spotify |
SPOT US |
511.3 |
NA |
36.1 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
NA |
| TME |
TME US |
16.2 |
17.7 |
16.7 |
5.3 |
4.7 |
24% |
| Average |
|
|
23.6 |
24.2 |
5.4 |
4.8 |
|
Analyst Certification
The research analyst certifies that the views expressed in the report accurately reflect his or her personal views about the subject securities or issuer and that no part of his or her compensation is related to the specific views expressed in this report. The analyst also confirms that he or she has not traded in the stock(s) covered in this report within 30 calendar days prior to the report's issue and will not do so within 3 business days after the report's issue. The analyst does not have any financial interests in the companies covered in this report.
Important Disclosures
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- Past performance does not indicate future performance.
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