20250221-海证期货-纯碱周度行情分析_后续检修预期提振下_纯碱价格呈现部分抗跌性_11页_1mb

纯碱周度行情分析总结

1. 价格走势及抗跌性：本周纯碱主力05合约依托均线系统震荡上扬，价格重心环比上移，呈现较强抗跌性，周五收盘价报1515元/吨。近期纯碱价格坚挺源于对后续装置检修的乐观预期及需求刚需的改善，但基本面供需数据表现平平。

2. 基差与价差：现货市场价格小幅上涨，基差环比回落，华北和华中地区基差分别约为-32元/吨和-132元/吨。纯碱05与09合约价差维持弱势震荡，短期延续弱势。

3. 供给端：国内纯碱产能利用率和产量环比小幅增加，尤其是联碱法产能利用率环比上升1.19%。后续部分装置检修预期将对价格形成利好，但现阶段供需压力依然存在。

4. 需求端：浮法玻璃日产量小幅下滑，库存继续累积，折库存天数约30.4天。冷修损失量环比上升，但整体需求回暖力度一般，对原料支撑有限。

5. 库存与利润：纯碱产业库存高位运行，厂家库存环比小幅增加。利润方面，氨碱法和联碱法利润环比小幅改善，但整体仍处于低位，供需宽松格局下改善空间有限。

英文Summary

The weekly analysis of pure碱 market outlook indicates that, amid optimistic expectations for future plant maintenance, pure碱 prices demonstrate partial resistance. The main 05 contract of pure碱 showed an upward trend, supported by demand from end-use industries. However, despite firm prices, fundamental supply-demand data indicate a relatively balanced market with limited improvement in demand.

Key points:

1. Pure碱 prices exhibited partial resistance amid optimistic expectations for future maintenance.
2. Baseline and spread analysis show mixed signals, with regional price spreads varying across markets.
3. Supply continues to increase slightly, while demand remains constrained in terms of overall market strength.

Future outlook depends on the materialization of maintenance schedules and demand trends.