20230806-华泰期货-焦炭焦煤月报_补库力度偏弱_供需格局切换中_7页_671kb

报告摘要

In July, both coking coal and coke markets experienced tight supply-demand dynamics, leading to strong price increases. Coking coal prices rose by approximately 8.2%, while coke prices increased by about 74.1%.
Supply constraints from safety inspections and steady Montlhéry (Mont煤) imports contributed to the supply tightness for coking coal.
Demand from steel producers was supported by high iron water output but was tempered by policy restrictions and weak downstream inventory replenishment.
Inventory levels decreased for most segments, except for docks, which saw accumulation due to speculative buying interest.

The market was characterized by supply shortages pushing prices higher in July.
For coke, strong prices were offset by subdued downstream demand and reduced inventory compressions under steel production control policies.
Coking coal performed better with higher price hikes and improved demand replenishment relative to coke.
Forecast for August indicates potential supply growth for coking coal, likely mitigating price increases, and ongoing but slow steel policies could sustain downward pressure on double-bottom (coking coal and coke) demand and prices.

Prices are expected to weaken due to anticipated supply rises in coking coal and persistent, albeit slow, steel production controls.
This may result in a trend-following bearish pattern for the double-bottom markets amid broader macroeconomic considerations.

Factors such as the execution of steel production controls, coking coal profitability margins, potential import surges, and global economic slowdown could introduce volatility and impact market stability.

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