2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Liberia_Eighth_Review_Under_the_Three_62页_1mb

Liberia: Eighth Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

The Eighth Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) for Liberia was conducted in March 2012, with the staff report finalized on April 24, 2012. The review assessed economic developments, policy implementation, and future strategies. The mission included IMF staff and representatives from the World Bank and European Union, and met with key government officials, private sector representatives, and development partners.

Main Views and Key Information

I. Recent Developments

• GDP Growth: Robust GDP growth in 2011 was driven by the rubber and iron ore sectors. However, growth in other non-mining sectors like agriculture and forestry was hindered by low productivity and poor infrastructure.
• Inflation: Inflation reached 11% in 2011, higher than the projected 6%, mainly due to rising fuel prices and limited competition among importers, which increased distribution costs.
• Trade: Visible trade expanded rapidly, with rubber exports increasing by two-thirds in US dollar terms. However, the trade deficit widened due to broad-based import growth.
• Financial Sector: The financial sector continued to expand, with commercial bank deposits and private credit rising by near 30% annually. However, credit growth slowed due to high non-performing loans (NPLs), which exceeded 20% of gross loans.
• Reserves: Foreign exchange reserves increased, but the net position was still below the program ceiling. The CBL used reserves to finance delayed building rehabilitation and lending programs.

II. Program and Policy Discussions

A. Macroeconomic Outlook and Poverty Reduction Strategy

• Growth Outlook: The growth outlook weakened slightly since the seventh review due to lower commodity prices and global uncertainty. However, there are upside potential from mining and oil exploration.
• PRS1 Implementation: About two-thirds of the planned measures under the first Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS1) were implemented, with macroeconomic stability, fiscal policies, and external debt reduction achieving full success.
• PRS2 Focus: The second Poverty Reduction Strategy (PRS2) emphasizes infrastructure investment, human capital development, and institutional strengthening.

B. Fiscal Policies

• FY2012 Performance: Fiscal performance in the first half of FY2012 showed strong revenue growth, mainly due to trade taxes and non-tax revenues. Current spending outpaced revenue, leading to a smaller fiscal surplus.
• FY2013 Priorities: The FY2013 budget aims to curb discretionary spending and increase capital investment. It is prepared under the Medium Term Expenditure Framework (MTEF), which reduces the budget baseline by excluding projects, transfers, and subsidies.
• Fiscal Deficit: Staff estimates that the FY2013 fiscal deficit will widen to around 2% of GDP due to declining one-off revenues and increased capital spending.

C. Monetary and Financial Policies

• Monetary Policy: The CBL aims to stabilize the Liberian dollar by managing exchange rate volatility through weekly US dollar auctions and ad-hoc special windows.
• Banking Sector: The banking system faces significant credit risks, with NPLs reaching 24% of gross loans. The CBL is enhancing supervision, but challenges remain in improving credit culture and liberalizing lending rates.
• Lending Initiatives: The CBL is launching small-scale lending initiatives to support under-served borrowers, which may expose it to reputational and financial risks.

D. Administrative and Other Reforms

• Legislative Agenda: The new administration is working on creating an autonomous revenue agency, replacing the general sales tax with a VAT, strengthening the anti-corruption commission, and updating SOE governance.
• Financial Oversight: A financial oversight unit for state enterprises is being established with donor support, and capacity-building initiatives are recommended.
• Payments System: Progress is being made in establishing a national payments system, with the Payments System Act being re-drafted to align with international standards.

E. External Policies

• HIPC Debt Restructuring: Negotiations for HIPC debt restructuring are nearing completion, with an agreement reached with BADEA. Discussions with Taiwan, Province of China have not advanced.
• Debt Strategy: The current debt strategy limits annual foreign currency borrowing to 3% of GDP (NPV terms). Staff suggested increasing this to 4% over the medium term to accommodate large infrastructure projects.
• Development Partners: New financing commitments from development partners are on favorable terms, including a $15 million loan from IFAD and $30 million from Kuwait and BADEA for port rehabilitation.

F. Fund Relations

• Successor Program: The authorities expressed interest in a successor program, which could support PRS2, enhance reserve adequacy, and develop a fiscal framework for managing non-renewable resource revenues.
• Policy Support: The program could also support public financial management, tax administration, trade facilitation, and financial sector stability.

III. Staff Appraisal

• Economic Trajectory: The economy is on a solid upward trend, with a shift towards more broad-based growth in primary and services sectors.
• Fiscal Strategy: The FY2013 budget strategy is appropriate and should be pursued resolutely. It aims to shift focus from current expenditures to investment and social programs.
• Reserve Accumulation: The continued accumulation of foreign exchange reserves is a significant achievement, improving the CBL's ability to manage external volatility.
• Sector Challenges: The financial sector faces challenges in credit risk management and needs enhanced supervisory capacity and liberalized lending rates.
• Support Needed: The PRS2 implementation requires coordinated support from the international community and firm government execution over several years.

Key Figures and Tables

• Figure 1: Shows GDP growth in 2011 and the impact of the rubber and iron ore sectors.
• Figure 2: Highlights the increase in gross international reserves and the decline in import coverage.
• Figure 3: Illustrates the development of the banking system and the rise in NPLs.
• Figure 4: Summarizes the PRS1 outcomes, including macroeconomic stability and partial success in certain areas.
• Table 1: Details the FY2010–12 fiscal performance, including revenues and expenditures.
• Table 2: Provides data on the MTEF and budget structure for FY2013.
• Table 3: Shows the fiscal deficit for FY2013 and the expected impact of concessional financing.
• Table 4: Outlines the CBL's initiatives to support under-served borrowers and the associated risks.

Conclusion

The Eighth Review under the ECF for Liberia highlights the country's progress in economic growth, fiscal performance, and financial sector development, while also identifying key challenges such as inflation, credit risks, and the need for continued reform and donor support. The staff report underscores the importance of maintaining macroeconomic stability, enhancing public financial management, and pursuing a more balanced fiscal and investment strategy in the medium term.