2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Burundi_2012_Article_IV_Consultation_and_First_Review_Under_the_Three_101页_1mb

Summary of the Burundi: 2012 Article IV Consultation and First Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content

The document outlines the findings of the IMF's 2012 Article IV consultation with Burundi, including the first review under the three-year arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF) and a request for modification of performance criteria. It includes a staff report, a public information notice, a press release, and a statement by the Executive Director.

Key Issues

Economic Context

• Burundi is one of the poorest countries in the world, with a GDP per capita of about US$255 and over two-thirds of the population living below the poverty line.
• Despite a challenging post-conflict environment, the government has made steady progress in implementing ECF-supported reforms, although unevenly.
• Civil society and trade unions have protested against high inflation and rising costs due to persistent food and fuel shocks.

Recent Developments

• Real GDP growth increased to 4.2 percent in 2011.
• Headline inflation rose sharply to 24.5 percent in March 2012 due to food and fuel price increases, but eased slightly to 22.7 percent by May 2012.
• The government implemented tax exemptions on food products to mitigate inflation's impact on the poor.
• Fiscal slippages were observed, with revenue shortfalls and expenditure overruns amounting to about 0.5 percent of GDP.

Program Implementation

• All quantitative and indicative targets for end-December 2011 and end-March 2012 were met except for pro-poor spending.
• Structural benchmarks for the first review are still pending.
• The decree on budget governance and recruitment of an international auditor are delayed due to the need to incorporate safeguards recommendations.
• The staff report was completed on July 12, 2012, and the review was approved with the disbursement of SDR 4 million.

Macroeconomic Outlook and Risks

• The medium-term macroeconomic outlook is challenging.
• Real GDP growth is projected to gradually increase, driven by agriculture, construction, and tourism.
• Headline inflation is expected to decline to around 15 percent by the end of 2012.
• The fiscal balance will initially worsen due to large hydroelectric plant construction and declining budget support.
• The current account balance is projected to narrow due to lower oil prices and higher coffee exports.
• Risks include a deterioration in the political and security situation, further decline in donor support, and worsening terms of trade.

Policy Themes

Theme 1: Forging Ahead with Revenue Mobilization

• Revenue reforms have been implemented to consolidate gains, compensate for declining budget support, and rebuild buffers.
• The government introduced an excise tax law and eliminated discretionary exemptions.
• Revenue measures included increased taxes on income, alcohol, tobacco, telecoms, and used cars.
• Expenditure cuts and privatization proceeds helped address fiscal slippages.
• The staff emphasized the need to continue revenue reforms and improve tax collection, particularly on excise and income taxes.
• The existing fuel pricing mechanism is deemed inefficient, and alternatives were suggested.

Theme 2: Bolstering Public Financial Management

• Public financial management (PFM) reforms are a key component of the program, aimed at improving accountability and transparency.
• A new PFM strategy was adopted, based on PEFA evaluation and IMF technical assistance.
• The decree on governance will align current procedures with the 2008 Organic Budget Law.
• The PFM strategy includes a multi-year budget approach, legal framework modernization, and better control of budget execution.
• The staff stressed the importance of adhering to the reform schedule and using technical assistance for capacity building.

Theme 3: Strengthening Debt Management

• Preserving debt sustainability is a central objective of the program.
• Burundi remains at high risk of debt distress due to its narrow export base and limited capacity.
• The public debt sustainability analysis suggests that lower economic growth could significantly worsen debt indicators.
• The authorities have committed to relying on grants and highly concessional loans.
• The Debt Management Performance Assessment (DEMPA) highlighted progress in legal frameworks and audit procedures but noted gaps in strategy formulation and reporting.

Theme 4: Reinining Inflation

• Monetary policy aims to contain inflation by addressing second-round effects from food and fuel shocks.
• Structural factors, such as a rudimentary interbank market and low statutory reserve requirements, hinder monetary policy effectiveness.
• The staff recommended further tightening of monetary policy as inflation remains high.
• The authorities believe that supply shocks are the main drivers of inflation and expect improved harvests and eased food import taxes to reduce inflationary pressures.

Theme 5: Reinforcing Financial Sector Surveillance

• The banking sector remains sound despite rapid credit growth.
• NPLs are in single digits but have risen due to economic conditions.
• The staff urged continued monitoring of credit risks and the impact of tighter monetary conditions on banks' balance sheets.
• The authorities emphasized vigilance in monitoring credit risk and conducted discussions with commercial banks on emerging risks.

Theme 6: Monitoring Inward Spillovers

• Burundi is vulnerable to external shocks, particularly through the trade channel.
• Exports are primarily directed to the EU, EAC, and Asia, with EAC being a major trading partner.
• The correlation between Burundi's GDP growth and its key trading partners has increased, indicating heightened vulnerability to regional shocks.
• BIS banks have increased risk exposure to Burundi, but the country remains a net creditor to these banks.

Theme 7: Increasing Competitiveness

• Enhancing competitiveness is a key policy theme to support long-term growth.
• The staff recommended continued efforts to strengthen the financial sector and improve public financial management.
• The authorities acknowledged the need for structural reforms to promote private sector-led growth, particularly in infrastructure and export diversification.

Key Information and Recommendations

• The staff report was completed on July 12, 2012, and the review was approved.
• SDR 4 million was recommended for disbursement.
• Performance criteria and indicative targets for end-September 2012 were modified.
• The authorities committed to continuing revenue reforms, improving PFM, and addressing debt management.
• The staff emphasized the importance of monitoring inflation, credit risks, and external spillovers.
• The document includes a risk assessment matrix, a discussion on fuel pricing mechanisms, and an exchange rate assessment.