2012年-IMF国际货币组织全球_Kyrgyz_Republic_Third_Review_Under_the_Three_95页_1mb

Kyrgyz Republic: Third Review Under the Three-Year Arrangement Under the Extended Credit Facility

Core Content Overview

This document outlines the Kyrgyz Republic's Third Review under the Three-Year Arrangement under the Extended Credit Facility (ECF), including a request for the modification of performance criteria. It is part of a comprehensive package that includes the Staff Report, Staff Supplement, Press Release, and Statement by the Executive Director. The report details the country's economic developments, program implementation, and policy discussions as of November 2012, following discussions with Kyrgyz officials from September 26 to October 10, 2012.

Key Economic Developments

• Political Context:
  A new coalition government was formed in September 2012, following the collapse of the previous one in August. While the political situation has stabilized, the main opposition party continues to challenge the government, particularly over the Kumtor gold mining company. The new government has continued key reforms, but political instability remains a risk.

• Economic Performance:

  • The economy contracted by 4.6% in the first nine months of 2012 due to a reduction in Kumtor's gold production and a delay in production to 2013–14.
  • Headline inflation dropped to -0.5% in June 2012 but rose to 4% in September 2012 due to rising international food and fuel prices.
  • Non-gold sectors showed positive growth, with 3.8% growth in manufacturing, construction, and services.
  • Tourism helped to cushion the current account deficit, which increased to 10% of GDP in H1 2012.

• Fiscal Performance:

  • The fiscal deficit for 2012 was lower than projected, reaching som 3.1 billion (1.7% of GDP) compared to the program target of som 7 billion (6% of GDP).
  • Revenue overperformance was driven by customs collections and prepayments from Kumtor.
  • Social assistance outlays increased to 1.3% of GDP by 2013 due to a 50% increase in the guaranteed minimum income.

• Financial Stability:

  • System-wide financial stability indicators remained broadly sound.
  • Banks remained well-capitalized and liquid, with nonperforming loans declining.
  • Reserve money grew by 13.5% year-on-year in June 2012, below the program's projected 16.7%.

Program Implementation

• The program is broadly on track, with all quantitative performance criteria and indicative targets met by end-June 2012.
• Structural benchmarks such as Zalkar bank's prospectus dissemination, valuation completion, and introduction of a commitment control system were also achieved.
• However, AML/CFT law amendments and Banking Code submission were delayed, leading to a request to re-phase the deadlines for these submissions.

Medium-Term Outlook and Risks

• Growth projections for 2012 are 1%, down from 5% at the second review, with 8.5% and 7.5% expected for 2013 and 2014, respectively.
• Inflation is expected to remain below 8% in 2012, with core inflation at 10%.
• Current account deficit is projected to widen to 9% of GDP in 2012 due to higher oil prices, but is expected to decline in 2013–14 with increased gold exports.
• Key risks include further political turmoil, which could hinder fiscal adjustment and delay structural reforms, and unexpected increases in international food and fuel prices, which could push inflation higher and exacerbate external vulnerabilities.

Policy Discussions

A. Fiscal Policy

• The government is committed to fiscal consolidation, with the 2013 budget guided by conservative revenue forecasts and non-priority expenditure restraint.
• Total fiscal deficit is projected to decline from 6% of GDP in 2012 to 5.3% in 2013 and 4% in 2014.
• Tax reforms are ongoing, with a compliance improvement plan being implemented to target high-risk sectors.
• Tax exemptions for new businesses in remote areas were considered, but staff cautioned against them due to potential distortions and risks.

B. Monetary Policy

• The National Bank of the Kyrgyz Republic (NBKR) will maintain tight monetary policy to keep inflation below 8% in 2012 and single digits in the future.
• The flexible exchange rate regime has been effective, and the NBKR will limit foreign exchange interventions to smooth short-term fluctuations.
• In case of prolonged food price shocks, the NBKR is prepared to tighten monetary policy further.

C. Banking Sector Policies

• The banking sector remains stable, with deposits growing by 33% year-on-year and private sector credit expanding by 22%.
• The NBKR is absorbing excess liquidity and has suspended interventions in the foreign exchange market.

D. Structural Reforms

• Public financial management (PFM) reforms have advanced, including the adoption of a commitment control system and unified chart of accounts.
• The Budget Code has been developed with technical assistance from the World Bank and comments from the IMF.
• The treasury single account is planned to enhance transparency and efficiency.

Program Issues and Requests

• The authorities requested a fourth disbursement (SDR 9.514 million) to be made available upon the completion of the review.
• They also requested modifications to performance criteria, particularly for the AML/CFT law and Banking Code.
• A zero ceiling on nonconcessional external debt was proposed to improve debt sustainability.

Conclusion

The Kyrgyz Republic has made progress in implementing its ECF program, despite economic challenges and political uncertainty. The focus remains on fiscal consolidation, monetary stability, and structural reforms to ensure long-term economic sustainability. The IMF staff supports the current trajectory, but cautions against potential risks from external shocks and delayed reforms.