20150728-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_34页_2mb

报告摘要

Regional Morning Notes Summary

Core Content Overview

This document provides a comprehensive update on financial performance, market trends, and investment recommendations for various regional markets, including China, Indonesia, Malaysia, Singapore, and Thailand, as of Tuesday, 28 July 2015. It includes analysis of key sectors, company results, valuation insights, and corporate events, along with analyst contacts and market indices.

Main Points and Key Information

China

Power Sector:
- Earnings growth in 1H15 is expected to be decent due to lower coal prices offsetting the impact of the April tariff cut.
- Earnings momentum is expected to slow down starting from 3Q15 as coal prices bottom.
- Maintain MARKET WEIGHT.
Great Wall Motor (2333 HK):
- 1H15 results met expectations with a 24% yoy net profit increase to Rmb4.9b.
- Maintain BUY recommendation with a target price of HK$43.00.
- Strong performance in the SUV segment, with a share of 82% in 2Q15.
- Expected sales growth for new models (H6 Coupe, H7) and recovery in 4Q15.
China Eastern Airlines (670 HK):
- Delta Airlines is acquiring a 3.5% stake at HK$7.48 per share.
- Target price raised by 18% to HK$9.00.
Datang Power (991 HK):
- Expected 16.4% yoy earnings decline in 1H15 due to coal-chemical business losses.
- Maintain HOLD with a revised target price of HK$3.60.
Key Assumptions:
- China's GDP growth forecast for 2015 is 7.0%.
- Coal prices are expected to bottom at Rmb390/tonne.
- CPI is forecasted to see the strongest earnings growth due to its high capacity expansion potential and parent asset injections.

Indonesia

Medco Energi Internasional (MEDC IJ):
- Maintain HOLD with a revised target price of Rp2,550.
- Expected first shipment from DSLNG soon.
- Entry price: Rp2,250.

Malaysia

Syarikat Takaful (STMB MK):
- Maintain HOLD with a target price of RM3.85.
- The stock has appreciated by 98% since the BUY initiation in December 2014.
- Growth prospects have largely been priced in.

Singapore

DBS Group Holdings (DBS SP):
- Maintain BUY with a target price of S$25.12.
- 2Q15 results showed steady broad-based growth.
Raffles Medical Group (RFMD SP):
- Downgraded to HOLD due to lacklustre results.
SIA Engineering (SIE SP):
- Downgraded to SELL with a target price of S$3.00.
- 1QFY16 results were weak due to engine JVs underperforming.

Thailand

Charoen Pokphand Foods (CPF TB):
- Maintain BUY with a target price of Bt31.75.
- Plans to acquire a poultry business in Russia.
SVI (SVI TB):
- Upgraded to BUY due to strong recovery prospects.

Key Indices Performance

Index	Prev Close	1D %	1W %	1M %	YTD %
DJIA	17440.6	-0.7	-3.6	-2.8	-2.1
S&P 500	2067.6	-0.6	-2.8	-1.6	+0.4
FTSE 100	6505.1	-1.1	-4.2	-3.7	-0.9
AS30	5579.2	+0.4	-1.6	+0.8	+3.5
CSI 300	3819.1	-8.6	-8.2	-11.9	+8.1
FSSTI	3313.4	-1.2	-1.8	-0.2	-1.5
HSCEI	11230.7	-3.8	-4.6	-14.2	-6.3
HSI	24352.0	-3.1	-4.1	-8.7	+3.2
JCI	4771.3	-1.8	-2.7	-3.1	-8.7
KLCI	1709.8	-0.6	-0.8	-0.0	-2.9
KOSPI	2038.8	-0.3	-1.7	-2.5	-6.4
Nikkei 225	20350.1	-0.9	-1.5	-1.7	-16.6
SET	1412.6	-1.8	-3.7	-6.9	-5.7
TWSE	8556.7	-2.4	-4.7	-9.6	-8.1
BDI	1090	+0.4	+2.2	+32.4	+39.4
CPO (RM/mt)	2171	-0.3	-0.6	+3.2	+5.5
Nymex Crude (US$/bbl)	47	-0.8	-6.7	-21.2	-11.8

Top Picks

BUY

Beijing Capital (694 HK): Target Price HK$12.30 (Upside 44.4%)
ICBC (1398 HK): Target Price HK$7.80 (Upside 43.4%)
Bank BJB (BJBR IJ): Target Price HK$1,300 (Upside 56.6%)
Maybank (MAY MK): Target Price RM10.30 (Upside 12.4%)
CapitaLand (CAPL SP): Target Price S$4.08 (Upside 22.2%)
DBS (DBS SP): Target Price S$25.12 (Upside 19.0%)
Kasikornbank (KBANK TB): Target Price Bt232 (Upside 31.8%)
PTT (PTT TB): Target Price Bt410 (Upside 30.6%)

SELL

SIA Engineering (SIE SP): Target Price S$3.00 (Downside 22.7%)
UMWH: Target Price HK$9.00 (Downside 11.1%)

Analysts

Yan Shi
- Contact: +8621 5404 7225 ext 804
- Email: yan.shi@uobkayhian.com
Ying Ying Tang
- Contact: +8621 5404 7225 ext 809
- Email: yingying@uobkayhian.com
Ken Lee
- Contact: +852 2236 6760
- Email: ken.lee@uobkayhian.com.hk

Corporate Events

Event	Venue	Begin	Close
VS Industry Berhad Roadshow	Singapore	30 Jul	30 Jul
SIN 2H15 Strategy Analyst Presentation	Kuala Lumpur	30 Jul	31 Jul
Halcyon Breakfast	Singapore	6 Aug	6 Aug
Agensi Inovasi Malaysia Luncheon	Kuala Lumpur	12 Aug	12 Aug

Summary of Key Financial Metrics (Great Wall Motor)

Metric	2014	2015F	2016F	2017F
Revenue (Rmbm)	62,591	81,330	105,589	121,010
Net Profit (Rmbm)	8,042	9,630	11,750	12,920
EPS (fen)	270.3	316.5	386.2	424.7
PE (x)	8.2	6.9	5.6	5.1
P/B (x)	2.0	1.6	1.3	1.1
ROE (%)	26.2	26.0	26.1	23.8
Dividend Yield (%)	2.9	3.5	4.3	4.7

Summary of Key Financial Assumptions

GDP Growth:
- China: 7.0% (2015F)
- Malaysia: 5.0% (2015F)
- Indonesia: 5.0% (2015F)
- Singapore: 2.9% (2015F)
Coal Prices:
- Expected to bottom at Rmb390/tonne.
CPO (Crude Palm Oil):
- Expected to rise to Rp765/mt in 2015F.
Brent Crude:
- Expected to average US$61/bbl in 2015F.

Summary of Key Earnings and Profit Forecasts

Great Wall Motor (GWM):
- 1H15 net profit: Rmb4.9b (+23.8% yoy)
- 2Q15 net profit: Rmb2.365b (+20.1% yoy, -6.7% qoq)
- Full year 2015F net profit: Rmb9.63b
- Full year 2016F net profit: Rmb11.75b
- Full year 2017F net profit: Rmb12.92b
Huadian Power (1071 HK):
- 1H15 net profit: Rmb3.65b (+36.2% yoy)
- 2Q15 net profit: Rmb1.85b (+25.2% yoy)
- Target price: HK$9.60
CR Power (836 HK):
- 1H15 net profit: Rmb6.67b (+10.0% yoy)
- Target price: HK$24.40
CPI (2380 HK):
- 1H15 net profit: Rmb2.5b (+54.5% yoy)
- Target price: HK$6.40
Datang Power (991 HK):
- 1H15 net profit: Rmb1.65b (-16.4% yoy)
- Target price: HK$3.60

Conclusion

The document highlights a mixed outlook across the region, with continued earnings growth in China's power sector and automotive industry, while some companies face challenges due to coal price stabilization and competitive pressures. Key recommendations include maintaining BUY on Great Wall Motor and several other stocks, and SELL on SIA Engineering. The SOE reform and parent asset injections are seen as significant drivers of future earnings growth for Chinese IPPs.

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