20150330-大华继显-Regional_Morning_Notes_34页_1mb
报告摘要
Regional Morning Notes Summary - 30 March 2015
Core Content Overview
This document provides a detailed analysis of financial performance, stock valuations, and investment recommendations for several companies across Malaysia, China, and Indonesia, along with market indices and corporate events for the week of 30 March 2015.
Key Stories
Malaysia
- MMC Corporation Bhd (MMC MK/BUY/RM2.49/Target: RM3.00)
- Initiated coverage with a BUY recommendation and a RM3.00 target price.
- Near-term re-rating catalysts include the listing of Malakoff and the KVMRT Line 2 tunnelling contract win.
China
-
China Construction Bank (939 HK/BUY/HK$6.31/Target: HK$7.50)
- 2014 net profit rose by 6.1% yoy but missed estimates by 1.3%.
- The lower-than-expected earnings were due to higher credit costs.
- Maintained BUY due to inexpensive valuation and solid fundamentals.
- Target price trimmed to HK$7.50 from HK$7.60.
-
China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK/HOLD/HK$35.55/Target: HK$38.50)
- 2014 earnings missed estimates by 10% due to underwriting losses in the P&C segment.
- Maintained HOLD with a new target price of HK$38.50.
- Entry price suggested at HK$32.00.
-
China Shineway Pharmaceutical (2877 HK/SELL/HK$11.36/Target: HK$10.20)
- 2014 results were in line with expectations but may continue to underperform due to lower drug prices.
-
ENN Energy Holdings (2688 HK/BUY/HK$47.35/Target: HK$60.00)
- 2014 core earnings rose by 20.6% yoy and dividend payout increased.
- Target price upgraded to HK$60.00.
-
Lijun International (2005 HK/BUY/HK$3.53/Target: HK$5.00)
- 2014 results matched expectations.
- Product upgrades and tender wins are expected to support growth in 2015.
-
Poly Property (119 HK/HOLD/HK$3.75/Target: HK$3.52)
- Weak results and plunge in net profit expected.
- Maintained HOLD.
-
Xingda International (1899 HK/SELL/HK$2.07/Target: HK$1.50)
- Net profit fell by 21% yoy, missing expectations.
- Downgraded to SELL due to no sign of product price recovery.
Indonesia
- Bumi Serpong Damai (BSDE LJ/BUY/Rp2,005/Target: Rp2,430)
- Executed a non-preemptive rights issue of Rp1.7t, lowering RNAV/share estimate to Rp4,959.
- Target price revised to Rp2,430.
- Maintained BUY.
Key Indices
| Index | Previous Close | 1D % | 1W % | 1M % | YTD % |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DJIA | 17712.7 | 0.2 | -2.3 | -2.3 | -0.6 |
| S&P 500 | 2061.0 | 0.2 | -2.2 | -2.1 | 0.1 |
| FTSE 100 | 6855.0 | -0.6 | -2.4 | -1.3 | 4.4 |
| AS30 | 5888.9 | 0.7 | -0.8 | -0.2 | 9.3 |
| CSI 300 | 3971.7 | 0.5 | 2.0 | 11.2 | 12.4 |
| FSSTI | 3450.1 | 0.5 | 1.1 | 1.4 | 2.5 |
| HSCEI | 11898.1 | -0.2 | -2.1 | -2.4 | -0.7 |
| HSI | 24486.2 | -0.0 | 0.5 | -1.4 | 3.7 |
| JCI | 5396.9 | 0.5 | -0.8 | -1.0 | 3.3 |
| KLCI | 1813.4 | -0.3 | 0.5 | -0.4 | 3.0 |
| KOSPI | 2019.8 | -0.1 | -0.9 | 1.7 | 5.4 |
| Nikkei 225 | 19285.6 | -1.0 | -1.4 | 2.6 | 10.5 |
| SET | 1495.2 | -0.1 | -2.3 | -5.8 | -0.2 |
| TWSE | 9503.7 | -1.2 | -2.5 | -1.2 | 2.1 |
| BDI | 596 | -0.3 | 0.8 | 10.4 | -23.8 |
| CPO (RM/ml) | 2192 | 1.2 | -0.3 | -2.1 | -4.6 |
| Nymex Crude | 48 | -1.6 | 1.4 | -3.3 | -9.7 |
Top Picks
BUY
- Sunac China (1918 HK): Target Price HK$7.97, Upside +21.7%.
- ICBC (1398 HK): Target Price HK$6.80, Upside +23.6%.
- Bank Negara (BBNI JI): Target Price HK$7,500, Upside +5.6%.
- Genting Msia (GENM MK): Target Price HK$4.47, Upside +6.7%.
- DBS (DBS SP): Target Price HK$23.55, Upside +15.9%.
- Pacific Radiance (PACRA SP): Target Price HK$1.00, Upside +47.1%.
- Krong Thai Bank (KTBS TB): Target Price HK$29.00, Upside +27.2%.
- Sino Thai Engr (STEC TB): Target Price HK$30.25, Upside +45.4%.
SELL
- UMWH Holdings (UMWH MK): Target Price HK$10.00, Downside -6.7%.
Key Assumptions
| Region | GDP Growth (% yoy) | 2013 | 2014 | 2015F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| US | 3.2 | 1.9 | 2.7 | 3.2 |
| Euro Zone | 1.4 | -0.4 | 0.9 | 1.4 |
| Japan | 2.0 | 1.5 | 1.5 | 2.0 |
| Singapore | 3.3 | 3.9 | 3.2 | 3.3 |
| Malaysia | 5.2 | 4.7 | 5.9 | 5.2 |
| Thailand | 3.9 | 2.9 | 1.5 | 3.9 |
| Indonesia | 5.8 | 5.8 | 5.2 | 5.8 |
| Hong Kong | 3.7 | 2.9 | 3.5 | 3.7 |
| China | 7.0 | 7.7 | 7.2 | 7.0 |
| Indicator | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F |
|---|---|---|---|
| Brent | 99.45 | 65 | 70 |
| CPO | 722 | 765 | 788 |
| BDI | 1,101 | 1,300 | 1,400 |
Corporate Events
| Event | Venue | Start Date | End Date |
|---|---|---|---|
| Sunway Berhad Luncheon | Kuala Lumpur | 31 Mar | 31 Mar |
| Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow | Singapore | 31 Mar | 31 Mar |
| Singamas Container Holdings Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 1 Apr | 1 Apr |
| China Railway Sector Analyst Presentation | Singapore | 1 Apr | 1 Apr |
| China Railway Sector Analyst Presentation | Kuala Lumpur | 2 Apr | 3 Apr |
| China Resources Gas Luncheon | Hong Kong | 2 Apr | 2 Apr |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow | Taipei | 30 Mar | 31 Mar |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow | Singapore | 2 Apr | 2 Apr |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 3 Apr | 3 Apr |
| Sihuan Pharmaceutical Holdings Roadshow | Hong Kong | 16 Apr | 17 Apr |
| Amata Corporation Roadshow | Kuala Lumpur | 9 Apr | 9 Apr |
| Amata Corporation Roadshow | Singapore | 10 Apr | 10 Apr |
| ENN Energy Corporate Roadshow | Toronto | 13 Apr | 14 Apr |
| PT Logindo Luncheon | Singapore | 17 Apr | 17 Apr |
China Construction Bank (939 HK)
- 2014 Earnings Miss: Missed estimates by 1.3%, mainly due to higher credit costs.
- NIM: Slightly weaker than peers, fell 2bp qoq to 2.79%.
- Cost Control: Continued strict cost control with operating expense growth of 2.6% yoy.
- Asset Quality: NPL balance rose 7.5% qoq, but NPL ratio was 1.19% (up 20bp yoy).
- Capital Adequacy Ratio (CAR): Tier-1 CAR 12.12%, Total CAR 14.87%.
- Dividend Yield: 5.6% for 2015F.
- Target Price: HK$7.50, with an upside of +18.9%.
China Pacific Insurance (2601 HK)
- 2014 Earnings Miss: Missed estimates by 10% due to underwriting losses in P&C.
- Combined Ratio: Rose from 99.5% to 103.8%.
- Target Price: Revised to HK$38.50, with an upside of +8.3%.
- Entry Price: Suggested at HK$32.00.
Key Financial Metrics
| Metric | 2014 | 2015F | 2016F | 2017F |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Net Interest Income (Rmbm) | 437,398 | 453,941 | 481,862 | 509,124 |
| Net Profit (Rmbm) | 227,585 | 237,098 | 244,739 | 250,997 |
| EPS (fen) | 91.0 | 94.8 | 97.9 | 100.4 |
| P/BV (x) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| P/NTA (x) | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.7 |
| Adjusted P/E (x) | 5.6 | 5.3 | 5.2 | 5.0 |
| Dividend Yield (%) | 5.9 | 5.6 | 5.8 | 6.0 |
Valuation and Recommendation
- Maintain BUY on inexpensive valuation and solid fundamentals.
- Net interest margin is expected to narrow further in 2015 due to monetary loosening.
- Dividend yield remains attractive at 5.6% for 2015F.
- Solvency margin is at 280%, indicating strong financial health.
Summary of Key Points
- MMC Corporation is recommended as a BUY due to potential asset value unlocking.
- China Construction Bank is a BUY despite slightly weaker NIM and asset quality, due to defensive fundamentals and inexpensive valuation.
- China Pacific Insurance is HOLD due to underwriting losses and weak investment returns.
- Xingda International and UMWH Holdings are SELL due to underperformance and no price recovery.
- Bumi Serpong Damai is BUY after a rights issue and lower RNAV.
- Key indices show mixed performance, with Asia-Pacific markets generally outperforming Western markets.
- Corporate events include roadshows and luncheons, indicating ongoing investor engagement.
- Valuation metrics are generally favorable, especially for China Construction Bank.
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